Draw predictions this weekend
Football predictions for draw, ranked from the highest model probability down.
A draw means both teams have the same number of goals after 90 minutes plus stoppage time: 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2 all count, and extra time and penalties don't. What is 1X2 in football betting?
33% is the highest Draw probability this weekend: Athletic Club vs Getafe CF, from ProbaPredict's statistical model.
Out of 1,479 matches played this season (last 12 months for internationals) across the 17 competitions we cover, 357 finished as draws (24%). Last season: 1,044 of 4,195 (25%), averaging 2.79 goals per game.
These are this weekend's draw predictions, ranked by the model's draw probability. Draws are the hardest result to call; even the top of this list usually sits around 30-35%.
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Fair odds | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||||
| Championship | ||||||||||
15:00  | 29% | 3.45 | U3.579% | 31% | 29% | 40% | 41% | 68% | 21% | 51% |
12:30  | 29% | 3.50 | U3.578% | 34% | 29% | 37% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 51% |
15:00  | 29% | 3.50 | U3.578% | 40% | 29% | 31% | 42% | 69% | 22% | 51% |
12:30  | 28% | 3.57 | U3.577% | 32% | 28% | 40% | 45% | 71% | 23% | 52% |
15:00  | 28% | 3.60 | U3.575% | 37% | 28% | 35% | 46% | 72% | 25% | 53% |
15:00  | 27% | 3.71 | O1.575% | 39% | 27% | 34% | 49% | 75% | 27% | 53% |
15:00  | 27% | 3.73 | O1.575% | 34% | 27% | 39% | 50% | 75% | 28% | 54% |
15:00  | 25% | 3.92 | U3.574% | 22% | 25% | 53% | 48% | 74% | 26% | 52% |
12:30  | 25% | 3.93 | O1.576% | 50% | 25% | 25% | 51% | 76% | 29% | 53% |
15:00  | 24% | 4.25 | O1.575% | 59% | 24% | 18% | 50% | 75% | 28% | 52% |
15:00  | 22% | 4.59 | O1.584% | 56% | 22% | 22% | 64% | 84% | 42% | 56% |
| Serie A | ||||||||||
17:00  | 29% | 3.46 | U3.579% | 36% | 29% | 35% | 42% | 69% | 21% | 50% |
14:00  | 29% | 3.47 | U3.579% | 32% | 29% | 39% | 42% | 69% | 21% | 50% |
19:45  | 26% | 3.85 | U3.581% | 58% | 26% | 16% | 39% | 66% | 19% | 47% |
14:00  | 21% | 4.74 | O1.582% | 61% | 21% | 18% | 60% | 82% | 38% | 53% |
| La Liga | ||||||||||
13:00  | 28% | 3.52 | U3.579% | 44% | 28% | 27% | 42% | 69% | 21% | 51% |
17:30  | 25% | 3.95 | O1.579% | 30% | 25% | 44% | 55% | 79% | 33% | 56% |
15:15  | 24% | 4.11 | O1.583% | 41% | 24% | 35% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 58% |
20:00  | 19% | 5.30 | O1.581% | 69% | 19% | 12% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 53% |
| Brasileirão Série A | ||||||||||
20:30  | 28% | 3.57 | U3.578% | 45% | 28% | 27% | 43% | 69% | 22% | 49% |
20:30  | 28% | 3.60 | U3.575% | 35% | 28% | 37% | 46% | 72% | 25% | 51% |
20:30  | 28% | 3.62 | U3.575% | 31% | 28% | 41% | 46% | 72% | 25% | 51% |
22:30  | 27% | 3.64 | U3.575% | 41% | 27% | 32% | 47% | 73% | 25% | 51% |
23:30 Chapecoense | 23% | 4.40 | O1.579% | 19% | 23% | 58% | 56% | 79% | 33% | 52% |
00:00  | 23% | 4.41 | O1.577% | 60% | 23% | 17% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 50% |
22:30  | 22% | 4.50 | U3.574% | 65% | 22% | 13% | 48% | 73% | 26% | 48% |
| Primeira Liga | ||||||||||
15:30  | 27% | 3.70 | U3.576% | 47% | 27% | 25% | 45% | 71% | 24% | 50% |
20:30  | 27% | 3.70 | U3.581% | 18% | 27% | 54% | 39% | 66% | 19% | 47% |
18:00  | 26% | 3.87 | O1.578% | 42% | 26% | 32% | 53% | 78% | 31% | 53% |
| Bundesliga | ||||||||||
14:30  | 27% | 3.73 | U3.574% | 45% | 27% | 28% | 48% | 74% | 26% | 58% |
14:30  | 25% | 3.98 | O1.577% | 50% | 25% | 25% | 52% | 77% | 30% | 59% |
14:30  | 25% | 4.03 | O1.581% | 41% | 25% | 34% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 61% |
14:30  | 24% | 4.14 | O1.579% | 52% | 24% | 24% | 56% | 79% | 33% | 59% |
14:30  | 20% | 4.90 | O1.586% | 60% | 20% | 20% | 67% | 86% | 46% | 62% |
17:30  | 18% | 5.61 | O1.589% | 67% | 18% | 15% | 71% | 89% | 51% | 62% |
| Premier League | ||||||||||
15:00  | 27% | 3.74 | O1.575% | 36% | 27% | 37% | 50% | 75% | 28% | 57% |
12:30  | 25% | 3.96 | O1.581% | 27% | 25% | 48% | 57% | 81% | 35% | 59% |
15:00  | 24% | 4.20 | U3.577% | 64% | 24% | 12% | 44% | 71% | 23% | 51% |
17:30  | 24% | 4.22 | O1.582% | 54% | 24% | 22% | 60% | 82% | 37% | 59% |
| Eredivisie | ||||||||||
20:00  | 25% | 4.05 | O1.581% | 34% | 25% | 41% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 59% |
17:45  | 24% | 4.12 | O1.583% | 36% | 24% | 39% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 60% |
15:30  | 20% | 5.03 | O1.585% | 63% | 20% | 17% | 65% | 85% | 43% | 59% |
| Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
19:45  | 24% | 4.09 | O1.576% | 54% | 24% | 21% | 51% | 76% | 29% | 55% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||||
| La Liga | ||||||||||
13:00  | 33% | 3.02 | U3.590% | 45% | 33% | 22% | 26% | 53% | 10% | 46% |
15:15  | 26% | 3.82 | O1.577% | 38% | 26% | 35% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 55% |
17:30  | 24% | 4.23 | O1.581% | 51% | 24% | 25% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 56% |
20:00  | 21% | 4.74 | O1.589% | 51% | 21% | 28% | 73% | 89% | 52% | 61% |
| Premier League | ||||||||||
16:30  | 28% | 3.51 | U3.574% | 34% | 28% | 37% | 47% | 74% | 26% | 56% |
14:00  | 26% | 3.88 | O1.581% | 38% | 26% | 37% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 59% |
14:00  BournemouthModel expects 3.1 total goals | 25% | 3.95 | O1.582% | 44% | 25% | 31% | 59% | 82% | 37% | 60% |
| Primeira Liga | ||||||||||
| Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
| Serie A | ||||||||||
| Eredivisie | ||||||||||
| Brasileirão Série A | ||||||||||
| Bundesliga | ||||||||||
How do our draw predictions work?
A draw prediction is about one result: both teams level after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2 all count; extra time and penalties do not.
Our model rates every team's attack and defence from recent results, adds home advantage and gives every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10 a probability. The draw chance is the sum of the level scores. The small Dixon-Coles correction matters most here, because plain Poisson models tend to underrate 0-0 and 1-1.
Draws are the hardest result to call. About a quarter of matches end level, and even the likeliest draws of the week rarely go above 30-35%. A 33% draw has fair odds of 3.00 and still fails two times in three. The list is ranked from the highest draw chance down; evenly matched, low-scoring games usually sit at the top.
New to this? Read: What is 1X2 in football betting? · What is double chance? · What is draw no bet?
These football predictions rank matches by probability while keeping the uncertainty visible.
More football predictions
Frequently asked questions
- How often does Draw land in the competitions we cover?
- Out of 1,479 matches played this season (last 12 months for internationals) across the 17 competitions we cover, 357 finished as draws (24%). Last season: 1,044 of 4,195 (25%), averaging 2.79 goals per game.
- How is the Draw probability calculated?
- Our model rates each team's attack and defence from recent results, adds home advantage, and builds a probability for every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10. The market probability adds up every scoreline that wins it.
- What is the most likely Draw pick this weekend?
- Athletic v Getafe at 33% (fair odds 3.02). Model expects 1.8 total goals. A 33% pick still fails about 7 times in 10.
- How accurate are your Draw predictions?
- We publish a hit rate here once at least 20 picks have been graded. Every ProbaPredict pick is graded in public after full time, including the ones that lose.