Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Elche CF prediction

La Liga · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UK

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Elche CF prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UK): Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 44% · Draw 28% · Elche CF 27%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.35–1.00. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche preview

Rayo Vallecano (14th, 9 pts) host Elche (18th, 7 pts) in the La Liga. Rayo Vallecano have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (DDWLW) and Elche 6 points from 5 (DDWLD). Rayo Vallecano: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 14 league games.

Our model favours Rayo Vallecano at 44% to Elche's 27%. Expected goals are 1.35 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.00 for Elche, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 58%, while 56% of La Liga matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 2 and Elche won 3; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Elche CF?

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid are favoured at 44%, but the draw and a Elche CF win together still account for 56%. Recent form: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid DDWLWL, Elche CF DDWLDL (latest first).

Rayo Vallecano won 2 of 3 home games this season.

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

44%

Draw

28%

Elche CF

27%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 58%; Over 2.5 is 42%.

Under 2.5 in 3 of 5 Elche away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	69%	31%	1.46
2.5 goals	42%	58%	2.40
3.5 goals	21%	79%	4.74

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid score in about 74% of simulated outcomes and Elche CF in about 63%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 8 Rayo Vallecano games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	51%	1.95
No	49%	2.06

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win	44%	2.26
Draw	28%	3.52
Elche CF win	27%	3.64
Over 2.5	42%	2.40
Under 2.5	58%	1.72

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid goals (rows) × Elche CF goals (columns)
Rayo \ Elche	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10%	9%	5%	2%	0%	0%
1	12%	13%	6%	2%	1%	0%
2	9%	9%	4%	1%	0%	0%
3	4%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

12%

0-0

10%

0-1

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Rayo Vallecano and Elche played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Rayo Vallecano, last 5

Rayo Vallecano, last 5 at home

Elche, last 5

Elche, last 5 away

Current streaks

Rayo Vallecano: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 14 league games.
Rayo Vallecano: both teams scored in each of their last 9 league games.
Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
Elche are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Rayo Vallecano and Elche.

How Rayo Vallecano and Elche compare this season

Stat	Rayo Vallecano (home, 3)	Elche (away, 5)	La Liga average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	80% (4/5)	76%
Over 2.5	67% (2/3)	40% (2/5)	56%
Over 3.5	33% (1/3)	40% (2/5)	39%
BTTS	100% (3/3)	80% (4/5)	60%
Win %	67% (2/3)	20% (1/5)	44% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	2.00	1.40	1.54
Goals against per game	1.33	1.20	1.54

La Liga average from 89 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

La Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Rayo Vallecano	14	9	8
Elche	18	7	9

Full La Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Rayo Vallecano 2 wins, 0 draws, Elche 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Fri, 3 Apr 2026	La Liga	Rayo Vallecano v Elche	1–0
Sun, 21 Dec 2025	La Liga	Elche v Rayo Vallecano	4–0
Sat, 29 Apr 2023	La Liga	Elche v Rayo Vallecano	4–0
Mon, 3 Oct 2022	La Liga	Rayo Vallecano v Elche	2–1
Fri, 18 Feb 2022	La Liga	Elche v Rayo Vallecano	2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Rayo Vallecano v Elche?: Our model makes Rayo Vallecano the more likely winner at 44%: Rayo Vallecano 44%, draw 28%, Elche 27%. Rayo Vallecano won 2 of 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rayo Vallecano v Elche?: Over 2.5 goals is 42% and under 2.5 is 58%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 3 of 5 Elche away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Rayo Vallecano and Elche played recently?: Latest first: Rayo Vallecano DDWLW, Elche DDWLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
15:15 · La LigaLa LigaSantandervEspanyol	O1.583%	41%	24%	35%	83%	61%	39%	58%	61%	83%	39%	58%
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13:00 · La LigaLa LigaAthleticvGetafe	U3.590%	45%	33%	22%	53%	26%	10%	46%	26%	53%	10%	46%
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