Athletic Club vs Getafe CF prediction

La Liga · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 13:00 UK

Athletic Club vs Getafe CF prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 13:00 UK): Athletic Club 45% · Draw 33% · Getafe CF 22%. Over 2.5 goals: 26%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.09–0.68. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 46%, No 54%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (18%), 0-0 (17%), 1-1 (13%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Athletic vs Getafe preview

Athletic (13th, 9 pts) host Getafe (15th, 9 pts) in the La Liga. Athletic have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (LDDDW) and Getafe 5 points from 5 (DLWLD). Athletic have not won in their last 4 league games.

Our model favours Athletic at 45% to Getafe's 22%. A draw is more likely than usual at 33%; 28% of La Liga matches end level. Expected goals are 1.09 for Athletic and 0.68 for Getafe, and the most likely score is 1-0 (18%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 74%, while 56% of La Liga matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Athletic won 2, Getafe won 2 and 1 ended level; none had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 74%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win Athletic Club vs Getafe CF?

Athletic Club are favoured at 45%, but the draw and a Getafe CF win together still account for 55%. Recent form: Athletic Club LDDDWW, Getafe CF DLWLDD (latest first).

Getafe lost all 4 away games this season.

Athletic Club

45%

Draw

33%

Getafe CF

22%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 74%; Over 2.5 is 26%.

Under 2.5 in 7 of 9 Getafe games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	53%	47%	1.87
2.5 goals	26%	74%	3.81
3.5 goals	10%	90%	9.58

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 46% chance: Athletic Club score in about 66% of simulated outcomes and Getafe CF in about 50%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 1.8 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	46%	2.19
No	54%	1.84

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Athletic Club win	45%	2.25
Draw	33%	3.02
Getafe CF win	22%	4.46
Over 2.5	26%	3.81
Under 2.5	74%	1.36

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 1.8 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Athletic Club goals (rows) × Getafe CF goals (columns)
Athletic \ Getafe	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	17%	11%	4%	1%	0%	0%
1	18%	13%	4%	1%	0%	0%
2	10%	7%	2%	1%	0%	0%
3	4%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-0

18%

0-0

17%

1-1

13%

0-1

11%

2-0

10%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Athletic and Getafe played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Athletic, last 5

Athletic, last 5 at home

Getafe, last 5

Getafe, last 5 away

Current streaks

Athletic have not won in their last 4 league games.

La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Athletic and Getafe.

How Athletic and Getafe compare this season

Stat	Athletic (home, 4)	Getafe (away, 4)	La Liga average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	50% (2/4)	76%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	56%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	0% (0/4)	39%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	0% (0/4)	60%
Win %	25% (1/4)	0% (0/4)	44% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	1.25	0.00	1.54
Goals against per game	1.00	2.00	1.54

La Liga average from 89 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

La Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Athletic	13	9	8
Getafe	15	9	9

Full La Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Athletic 2 wins, 1 draw, Getafe 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 0 of 5; both teams scored in 1 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 5 Apr 2026	La Liga	Getafe v Athletic	2–0
Sat, 25 Oct 2025	La Liga	Athletic v Getafe	0–1
Thu, 15 May 2025	La Liga	Getafe v Athletic	0–2
Thu, 15 Aug 2024	La Liga	Athletic v Getafe	1–1
Fri, 3 May 2024	La Liga	Getafe v Athletic	0–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Athletic v Getafe?: Our model makes Athletic the more likely winner at 45%: Athletic 45%, draw 33%, Getafe 22%. Getafe lost all 4 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Athletic v Getafe?: Over 2.5 goals is 26% and under 2.5 is 74%, with expected goals of 1.8. Under 2.5 in 7 of 9 Getafe games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-0 at 18%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Athletic and Getafe played recently?: Latest first: Athletic LDDDW, Getafe DLWLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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