Premier League Relegation Predictions 2026-27: Who Will Go Down?
ProbaPredict's model rates Coventry City FC (51%), Ipswich Town FC (48%) and Hull City AFC (44%) as the teams most likely to be relegated from the Premier League, with 3 going down automatically. Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 330 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | xPos | Relegated | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry City | 5 | 3 | 36.6 | 16.7 | 51% | 1.94 |
| 2 |  Ipswich Town | 5 | 6 | 37.4 | 16.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
| 3 |  Hull City | 5 | 8 | 38.3 | 16.2 | 44% | 2.29 |
| 4 |  Sunderland | 5 | 4 | 40.1 | 15.4 | 35% | 2.89 |
| 5 |  Tottenham | 5 | 2 | 41.3 | 14.8 | 30% | 3.36 |
| 6 |  Crystal Palace | 5 | 4 | 42.1 | 14.6 | 28% | 3.60 |
| 7 |  Fulham | 5 | 2 | 42.6 | 14.3 | 25% | 4.00 |
| 8 |  Aston Villa | 5 | 4 | 50.1 | 11.0 | 8% | 12.53 |
| 9 |  Nottingham | 5 | 5 | 50.0 | 11.0 | 8% | 13.30 |
| 10 |  Bournemouth | 5 | 3 | 50.8 | 10.6 | 7% | 15.04 |
| 11 |  Everton | 5 | 9 | 51.7 | 10.3 | 5% | 20.37 |
| 12 |  Man United | 5 | 5 | 53.8 | 9.3 | 4% | 28.17 |
| 13 |  Chelsea | 5 | 7 | 55.0 | 8.9 | 3% | 35.59 |
| 14 |  Leeds United | 5 | 9 | 56.0 | 8.5 | 2% | 51.28 |
| 15 |  Newcastle | 5 | 8 | 56.4 | 8.3 | 2% | 53.48 |
| 16 |  Brentford | 5 | 9 | 57.4 | 7.9 | 2% | 56.50 |
| 17 |  Brighton Hove | 5 | 10 | 62.4 | 6.0 | <1% | 285.71 |
| 18 |  Liverpool | 5 | 9 | 64.7 | 5.2 | <1% | 625.00 |
| 19 |  Arsenal | 5 | 12 | 79.3 | 1.9 | 0% | – |
| 20 |  Man City | 5 | 15 | 77.0 | 2.3 | 0% | – |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Premier League?
- Arsenal FC (49%), followed by Manchester City FC (37%) and Liverpool FC (5%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the Premier League?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates Coventry City FC (51%), Ipswich Town FC (48%), Hull City AFC (44%) as the most likely. 3 teams go down automatically.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.