Premier League Top Four Predictions 2026-27: Who Will Finish in the Top 4?
ProbaPredict's model gives Arsenal FC a 95% chance of finishing in the Premier League top 4 (champions league places), ahead of Manchester City FC (91%) and Liverpool FC (51%). Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 330 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | Top 4 | Title | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 5 | 12 | 79.3 | 95% | 49% | 1.05 |
| 2 |  Man City | 5 | 15 | 77.0 | 91% | 37% | 1.10 |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 5 | 9 | 64.7 | 51% | 5% | 1.97 |
| 4 |  Brighton Hove | 5 | 10 | 62.4 | 42% | 3% | 2.40 |
| 5 |  Brentford | 5 | 9 | 57.4 | 23% | 1% | 4.43 |
| 6 |  Newcastle | 5 | 8 | 56.4 | 19% | 1% | 5.19 |
| 7 |  Leeds United | 5 | 9 | 56.0 | 18% | 1% | 5.66 |
| 8 |  Chelsea | 5 | 7 | 55.0 | 16% | 1% | 6.41 |
| 9 |  Man United | 5 | 5 | 53.8 | 13% | <1% | 7.43 |
| 10 |  Everton | 5 | 9 | 51.7 | 9% | <1% | 11.52 |
| 11 |  Bournemouth | 5 | 3 | 50.8 | 8% | <1% | 12.71 |
| 12 |  Aston Villa | 5 | 4 | 50.1 | 7% | <1% | 15.08 |
| 13 |  Nottingham | 5 | 5 | 50.0 | 6% | <1% | 16.10 |
| 14 |  Crystal Palace | 5 | 4 | 42.1 | 1% | <1% | 88.50 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 5 | 2 | 42.6 | 1% | <1% | 89.29 |
| 16 |  Tottenham | 5 | 2 | 41.3 | 1% | 0% | 138.89 |
| 17 |  Sunderland | 5 | 4 | 40.1 | 1% | <1% | 188.68 |
| 18 |  Ipswich Town | 5 | 6 | 37.4 | <1% | 0% | 370.37 |
| 19 |  Hull City | 5 | 8 | 38.3 | <1% | 0% | 400.00 |
| 20 |  Coventry City | 5 | 3 | 36.6 | <1% | 0% | 500.00 |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Premier League?
- Arsenal FC (49%), followed by Manchester City FC (37%) and Liverpool FC (5%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the Premier League?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates Coventry City FC (51%), Ipswich Town FC (48%), Hull City AFC (44%) as the most likely. 3 teams go down automatically.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.