Football predictions with the probability on every pick
Over/Under goals and home and away win chances for 10 club competitions and major international tournaments, calculated from a statistical model, published before kick-off and graded after full time.
Today: 0 matches across our 10 competitions.
Probabilities, not hunches
Every number comes from a Dixon-Coles goals model fitted to two seasons of results, not opinion.
Compared with bookmaker closing prices
We compare our probabilities with bookmaker closing prices on the same matches and publish the result. (first comparison after matches are graded)
Every pick graded in public
Wins and losses stay on record. See hit rates, calibration and Brier scores. View accuracy
Browse by market
Competitions
Frequently asked questions
- What does Over 2.5 goals mean?
- Over 2.5 goals means the match finishes with three or more goals in total, counting both teams. A 2-1 or 3-0 counts; a 1-1 or 2-0 does not.
- What does a 60% probability mean?
- If the model gives an outcome 60%, it expects that outcome in roughly 6 of every 10 similar matches. It will still not happen in about 4 of them, so a single result says little about the model.
- How do I convert a probability into odds?
- Divide 100 by the percentage. 50% becomes fair decimal odds of 2.00, 40% becomes 2.50 and 25% becomes 4.00. Fair odds carry no bookmaker margin.
- How accurate are you?
- Every pick is graded in public after full time, including the ones that lose. Hit rates, calibration and Brier scores are on our accuracy page. See accuracy
- Do you guarantee winners?
- No. These are model estimates of likelihood, not guarantees. Even well-calibrated probabilities are wrong a predictable share of the time.