Editorial policy

Numbers first

Every page leads with the model's numbers. Text around them is generated from fixed thresholds (for example, a gap of 30 points or more between the two sides is described as "clear favourites") so descriptions never overstate what the numbers say.

Publishing and updates

Probabilities are first published up to 7 days before kick-off and may be refreshed each morning until the match starts. Each page shows when it was first published and last updated. After kick-off the numbers are frozen.

Grading

Picks are graded automatically from official full-time scores (90 minutes plus stoppage time). Every graded pick stays on the accuracy page and in the CSV download. Fixture pages never change address, so they form a permanent prediction-versus-result record.

Language

We describe likelihoods, not certainties. We do not use words that imply a pick cannot lose.

Corrections

If a data error affects a published probability or grade, we correct it and note the change on the methodology page.