What does Over 2.5 goals mean?

Over 2.5 goals means the match ends with three or more goals in total, counting both teams. Under 2.5 means two or fewer. The ".5" exists so there is never a tie: a match cannot have two and a half goals.

Examples

• 2-1, 3-0, 2-2, 4-1: Over 2.5.
• 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0: Under 2.5.

Only normal time counts, including stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shootouts are ignored.

How often does it happen?

In most top European leagues, roughly half of matches finish with three or more goals, though the share varies by league and season. That is why a single match's probability matters more than a general rule.

How do we estimate it?

Our model predicts expected goals for both teams, spreads them across every possible scoreline and adds up those with three or more goals. See the methodology.

How do I turn a probability into odds?

Divide 100 by the percentage. A 60% chance of Over 2.5 equals fair decimal odds of 1.67; 50% equals 2.00. Bookmaker prices include a margin, so they are usually shorter than fair odds.

See today's Over 2.5 goals probabilities or the Over/Under 2.5 accuracy record.