Champions League Winner Predictions 2026-27: Every Team's Chances
ProbaPredict's model gives Arsenal FC a 13% chance of winning the Champions League, ahead of FC Bayern München (13%) and FC Barcelona (8%). Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 126 league-phase matches and every knockout round, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK.
| # | Team | Pts | Top 8 | Last 16 | QF | SF | Final | Win | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 3 | 71% | 92% | 66% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 7.51 |
| 2 |  Bayern | 3 | 77% | 94% | 69% | 44% | 26% | 13% | 7.62 |
| 3 |  Barça | 3 | 60% | 87% | 56% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 13.26 |
| 4 |  Shaktar | 1 | 20% | 34% | 21% | 15% | 10% | 7% | 13.68 |
| 5 |  PSG | 3 | 52% | 83% | 52% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 14.29 |
| 6 |  Man City | 3 | 46% | 79% | 47% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 15.92 |
| 7 |  Fenerbahçe | 1 | 19% | 33% | 20% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 17.45 |
| 8 |  PAE AEK | 3 | 17% | 31% | 19% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 18.32 |
| 9 |  Real Madrid | 3 | 48% | 78% | 43% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 26.74 |
| 10 |  Viking | 0 | 9% | 19% | 12% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 28.82 |
| 11 |  LASK | 0 | 7% | 18% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 32.89 |
| 12 |  Sl. Bratislava | 0 | 8% | 17% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 34.97 |
| 13 |  Inter | 0 | 31% | 67% | 34% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 36.23 |
| 14 |  Liverpool | 3 | 46% | 74% | 36% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 42.74 |
| 15 |  Sporting CP | 3 | 32% | 67% | 33% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 43.86 |
| 16 |  Sabah FK | 0 | 6% | 13% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 55.25 |
| 17 |  Porto | 0 | 16% | 52% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 56.18 |
| 18 |  Roma | 1 | 18% | 55% | 26% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 59.52 |
| 19 |  Como 1907 | 3 | 20% | 50% | 21% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 97.09 |
| 20 |  Dortmund | 3 | 30% | 58% | 23% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 100.00 |
| 21 |  Atleti | 0 | 12% | 42% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 113.64 |
| 22 |  PSV | 1 | 18% | 47% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 135.14 |
| 23 |  Club Brugge | 0 | 4% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 140.85 |
| 24 |  Bodø/Glimt | 0 | 7% | 25% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 166.67 |
| 25 |  RC Lens | 3 | 21% | 49% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 188.68 |
| 26 |  Aston Villa | 3 | 27% | 54% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 192.31 |
| 27 |  Man United | 3 | 15% | 44% | 16% | 6% | 2% | <1% | 217.39 |
| 28 |  Lille | 0 | 4% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | <1% | 217.39 |
| 29 |  Napoli | 0 | 9% | 37% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% | 250.00 |
| 30 |  Galatasaray | 0 | 3% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | 400.00 |
| 31 |  Real Betis | 3 | 11% | 33% | 10% | 3% | 1% | <1% | 454.55 |
| 32 |  Stuttgart | 3 | 19% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 1% | <1% | 476.19 |
| 33 |  Feyenoord | 0 | 6% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 1% | <1% | 555.56 |
| 34 |  Villarreal | 0 | 7% | 28% | 8% | 2% | 1% | <1% | 714.29 |
| 35 |  RB Leipzig | 0 | 2% | 13% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 1000.00 |
| 36 |  Slavia Praha | 0 | 1% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2500.00 |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. After the league phase we play the knockout play-offs and every round to the final on UEFA's seeded bracket, with two legs, home advantage, extra time and penalties, and a neutral-venue final. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Champions League?
- Arsenal FC (13%), followed by FC Bayern München (13%) and FC Barcelona (8%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK.