Bundesliga Predictions 2026-27: Title, Top 4 and Relegation Probabilities
ProbaPredict's model gives FC Bayern München a 90% chance of winning the Bundesliga title, ahead of Borussia Dortmund (8%) and Bayer 04 Leverkusen (1%). 1. FC Union Berlin are the most likely to go down (46%). Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 270 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern | 4 | 10 | 84.1 | 90% | >99% | 0% |
| 2 |  Dortmund | 4 | 12 | 68.5 | 8% | 89% | 0% |
| 3 |  Leverkusen | 4 | 7 | 59.7 | 1% | 62% | <1% |
| 4 |  Stuttgart | 4 | 3 | 53.4 | <1% | 33% | 1% |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 6 | 52.8 | <1% | 32% | 1% |
| 6 |  Freiburg | 4 | 10 | 51.3 | <1% | 25% | 1% |
| 7 |  Mainz | 4 | 7 | 48.0 | <1% | 15% | 2% |
| 8 |  Elversberg | 4 | 7 | 45.0 | <1% | 9% | 5% |
| 9 |  Frankfurt | 4 | 5 | 44.9 | <1% | 9% | 6% |
| 10 |  Hoffenheim | 4 | 3 | 43.5 | 0% | 7% | 8% |
| 11 |  Augsburg | 4 | 7 | 43.1 | <1% | 6% | 7% |
| 12 |  Bremen | 4 | 7 | 40.3 | <1% | 3% | 13% |
| 13 |  Schalke | 4 | 5 | 39.9 | 0% | 3% | 14% |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn | 4 | 4 | 39.2 | 0% | 3% | 16% |
| 15 |  1. FC Köln | 4 | 4 | 37.4 | 0% | 2% | 21% |
| 16 |  HSV | 4 | 3 | 37.3 | 0% | 1% | 23% |
| 17 |  M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 33.7 | 0% | 1% | 36% |
| 18 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 1 | 31.5 | 0% | <1% | 46% |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern | 90 | 9 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Dortmund | 8 | 52 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Leverkusen | 1 | 18 | 25 | 18 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Stuttgart | 6 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| RB Leipzig | 6 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Freiburg | 4 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Mainz | 2 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Frankfurt | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Augsburg | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | ||
| Elversberg | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| Bremen | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | |||
| Hoffenheim | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | ||
| Schalke | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | ||
| SC Paderborn | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | |||
| 1. FC Köln | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | |||
| HSV | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | ||||
| M'gladbach | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 16 | 20 | |||||
| Union Berlin | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 18 | 28 |
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Bundesliga?
- FC Bayern München (90%), followed by Borussia Dortmund (8%) and Bayer 04 Leverkusen (1%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the Bundesliga?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates 1. FC Union Berlin (46%), Borussia Mönchengladbach (36%) as the most likely. 2 teams go down automatically and the team finishing 16th enters a relegation play-off.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.