Ligue 1 Predictions 2026-27: Title, Top 3 and Relegation Probabilities
ProbaPredict's model gives Paris Saint-Germain FC a 66% chance of winning the Ligue 1 title, ahead of AS Monaco FC (10%) and Olympique Lyonnais (9%). Le Havre AC are the most likely to go down (48%). Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 261 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | Title | Top 3 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSG | 5 | 8 | 71.6 | 66% | 92% | 0% |
| 2 |  Monaco | 5 | 13 | 59.5 | 10% | 46% | <1% |
| 3 |  Olympique Lyon | 5 | 11 | 58.5 | 9% | 43% | <1% |
| 4 |  Lille | 5 | 10 | 56.6 | 5% | 32% | <1% |
| 5 |  RC Lens | 5 | 4 | 51.9 | 2% | 18% | 1% |
| 6 |  Stade Rennais | 5 | 10 | 52.1 | 2% | 18% | 1% |
| 7 |  Strasbourg | 5 | 7 | 51.4 | 2% | 16% | 1% |
| 8 |  Paris FC | 5 | 11 | 50.5 | 2% | 13% | 1% |
| 9 |  Marseille | 5 | 3 | 49.7 | 1% | 12% | 2% |
| 10 |  Lorient | 5 | 5 | 43.4 | <1% | 3% | 7% |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 5 | 5 | 42.7 | <1% | 3% | 8% |
| 12 |  Auxerre | 5 | 6 | 39.2 | <1% | 1% | 16% |
| 13 |  Brest | 5 | 5 | 38.7 | <1% | 1% | 17% |
| 14 |  Nice | 5 | 5 | 38.5 | <1% | 1% | 18% |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 5 | 6 | 37.9 | <1% | 1% | 20% |
| 16 |  Troyes | 5 | 4 | 35.0 | <1% | <1% | 31% |
| 17 |  Angers SCO | 5 | 7 | 34.7 | <1% | <1% | 29% |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 5 | 2 | 30.8 | 0% | <1% | 48% |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG | 66 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Monaco | 10 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Olympique Lyon | 9 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | ||||||
| Lille | 5 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Stade Rennais | 2 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| RC Lens | 2 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Strasbourg | 2 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Paris FC | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | ||
| Marseille | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Toulouse | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | ||
| Lorient | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | |
| Le Mans | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 | |||
| Brest | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | |||
| Nice | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | |||
| Auxerre | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | |||
| Troyes | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 16 | |||||
| Angers SCO | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 14 | ||||||
| Le Havre | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 30 |
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Ligue 1?
- Paris Saint-Germain FC (66%), followed by AS Monaco FC (10%) and Olympique Lyonnais (9%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the Ligue 1?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates Le Havre AC (48%), ES Troyes AC (31%) as the most likely. 2 teams go down automatically and the team finishing 16th enters a relegation play-off.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK.