Champions League Predictions 2026-27: League Phase and Knockout Probabilities
ProbaPredict's model gives Arsenal FC a 13% chance of winning the Champions League, ahead of FC Bayern München (13%) and FC Barcelona (8%). Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 126 league-phase matches and every knockout round, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | xPos | Top 8 | 9th–24th | Out | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern | 1 | 3 | 17.6 | 5.7 | 77% | 22% | 1% | 13% |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 1 | 3 | 17.3 | 6.6 | 71% | 28% | 1% | 13% |
| 3 |  Barça | 1 | 3 | 16.1 | 8.3 | 60% | 38% | 2% | 8% |
| 4 |  PSG | 1 | 3 | 15.4 | 9.7 | 52% | 45% | 4% | 7% |
| 5 |  Real Madrid | 1 | 3 | 15.3 | 10.2 | 48% | 48% | 4% | 4% |
| 6 |  Man City | 1 | 3 | 15.1 | 10.7 | 46% | 49% | 5% | 6% |
| 7 |  Liverpool | 1 | 3 | 15.1 | 10.8 | 46% | 49% | 5% | 2% |
| 8 |  Sporting CP | 1 | 3 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 32% | 58% | 10% | 2% |
| 9 |  Inter | 1 | 0 | 13.3 | 13.7 | 31% | 59% | 11% | 3% |
| 10 |  Dortmund | 1 | 3 | 13.6 | 13.7 | 30% | 59% | 11% | 1% |
| 11 |  Aston Villa | 1 | 3 | 13.5 | 14.1 | 27% | 62% | 11% | 1% |
| 12 |  Como 1907 | 1 | 3 | 12.5 | 16.2 | 20% | 62% | 18% | 1% |
| 13 |  RC Lens | 1 | 3 | 12.6 | 16.2 | 21% | 61% | 18% | 1% |
| 14 |  Stuttgart | 1 | 3 | 12.4 | 16.6 | 19% | 61% | 19% | <1% |
| 15 |  Roma | 1 | 1 | 12.1 | 16.6 | 18% | 63% | 19% | 2% |
| 16 |  Porto | 1 | 0 | 12.0 | 17.0 | 16% | 64% | 20% | 2% |
| 17 |  PSV | 1 | 1 | 11.9 | 17.2 | 18% | 60% | 22% | 1% |
| 18 |  Man United | 1 | 3 | 11.7 | 17.6 | 15% | 62% | 23% | <1% |
| 19 |  Atleti | 1 | 0 | 11.0 | 18.9 | 12% | 60% | 28% | 1% |
| 20 |  Real Betis | 1 | 3 | 11.2 | 19.3 | 11% | 60% | 29% | <1% |
| 21 |  Napoli | 1 | 0 | 10.8 | 19.6 | 9% | 60% | 30% | <1% |
| 22 |  Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 10.2 | 20.9 | 7% | 56% | 37% | <1% |
| 23 |  Shaktar | 1 | 1 | 10.0 | 21.1 | 20% | 33% | 47% | 7% |
| 24 |  Fenerbahçe | 1 | 1 | 9.7 | 21.6 | 19% | 31% | 50% | 6% |
| 25 |  PAE AEK | 1 | 3 | 10.0 | 21.7 | 17% | 32% | 51% | 5% |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 9.8 | 22.3 | 6% | 49% | 45% | <1% |
| 27 |  Lille | 1 | 0 | 9.3 | 22.8 | 4% | 50% | 46% | <1% |
| 28 |  Bodø/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 9.4 | 22.9 | 7% | 43% | 50% | 1% |
| 29 |  RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 7.7 | 26.1 | 2% | 31% | 67% | <1% |
| 30 |  Club Brugge | 1 | 0 | 7.1 | 26.6 | 4% | 27% | 69% | 1% |
| 31 |  Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 7.2 | 26.8 | 3% | 28% | 70% | <1% |
| 32 |  Viking | 1 | 0 | 6.5 | 26.9 | 9% | 20% | 71% | 3% |
| 33 |  LASK | 1 | 0 | 6.5 | 27.1 | 7% | 22% | 71% | 3% |
| 34 |  Sl. Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 6.3 | 27.6 | 8% | 19% | 73% | 3% |
| 35 |  Sabah FK | 1 | 0 | 5.4 | 29.0 | 6% | 16% | 78% | 2% |
| 36 |  Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 5.0 | 30.5 | 1% | 12% | 87% | <1% |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. After the league phase we play the knockout play-offs and every round to the final on UEFA's seeded bracket, with two legs, home advantage, extra time and penalties, and a neutral-venue final. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Champions League?
- Arsenal FC (13%), followed by FC Bayern München (13%) and FC Barcelona (8%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK.