What is 1X2 in football betting?
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · Last reviewed
1X2 is the football match result market. "1" is a home win, "X" is a draw and "2" is an away win, settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Exactly one of the three outcomes happens, so their true probabilities add up to 100%. It is also called the full-time result or three-way market.
How does the 1X2 market work?
Every football match ends in one of three ways after 90 minutes: the home team wins, the teams draw, or the away team wins. The 1X2 market simply numbers them. The home team is always listed first, so "1" is the home side, "X" is the draw and "2" is the away side. At a neutral venue the team listed first is treated as "home" for settling.
Because there are three outcomes, the market is sometimes called "three-way". US sportsbooks call it the "three-way moneyline" to distinguish it from a two-way moneyline, where the draw is removed (that is closer to draw no bet).
How often does each result happen?
Over the last five seasons in our nine leagues, home teams won 44.0% of matches, 25.6% were draws and away teams won 30.5%. Draw rates are fairly similar across leagues, while the balance between home and away wins moves with home advantage.
| League | Period | Matches | Home win (1) | Draw (X) | Away win (2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | This season (2026-27) | 50 | 36.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1900 | 44.2% | 23.9% | 31.9% | |
| Championship | This season (2026-27) | 95 | 41.1% | 30.5% | 28.4% |
| Last 5 seasons | 2765 | 43.5% | 26.1% | 30.4% | |
| La Liga | This season (2026-27) | 69 | 44.9% | 24.6% | 30.4% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1900 | 45.7% | 26.2% | 28.1% | |
| Bundesliga | This season (2026-27) | 36 | 52.8% | 19.4% | 27.8% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1530 | 44.1% | 24.9% | 31.0% | |
| Serie A | This season (2026-27) | 50 | 44.0% | 18.0% | 38.0% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1900 | 40.4% | 27.2% | 32.4% | |
| Ligue 1 | This season (2026-27) | 45 | 40.0% | 28.9% | 31.1% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1677 | 43.5% | 24.5% | 32.0% | |
| Eredivisie | This season (2026-27) | 63 | 30.2% | 27.0% | 42.9% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1530 | 44.2% | 24.2% | 31.6% | |
| Primeira Liga | This season (2026-27) | 62 | 38.7% | 29.0% | 32.3% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1530 | 43.3% | 24.8% | 32.0% | |
| Brasileirão Série A | This season (2026) | 277 | 46.9% | 27.8% | 25.3% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1900 | 46.9% | 27.3% | 25.8% | |
| All nine leagues | Last five seasons | 16632 | 44.0% | 25.6% | 30.5% |
Source: ProbaPredict analysis of 17,379 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026. "Last five seasons" covers 2021-22 to 2025-26 (calendar years for the Brasileirão). Scores are after 90 minutes.
How do we predict 1X2?
Our model estimates each team's expected goals from attack and defence ratings plus home advantage. It turns those into probabilities for every scoreline, then adds up all the scorelines where the home side is ahead (1), level (X) or behind (2). The three numbers always add up to 100%. The methodology page has the details.
Worked example
Our model gives a match: home 48%, draw 27%, away 25%. Fair decimal odds are 100 ÷ 48 = 2.08, 100 ÷ 27 = 3.70 and 100 ÷ 25 = 4.00. A bookmaker might offer 2.00, 3.40 and 3.80. Their implied probabilities are 50.0%, 29.4% and 26.3%, which add up to 105.7%. The extra 5.7% is the bookmaker's margin; our guide to bookmaker margin explains how to remove it.
In fractional odds those bookmaker prices are evens, 12/5 and 14/5; in American odds +100, +240 and +280. The odds converter switches between formats.
Why is the draw so hard to predict?
Draws are rarely the single most likely result. Even in an evenly matched game, the draw is typically 27–30% while each win is around 35%. That is why our home win and away win pages pick out the most likely winner, and why a model can be well calibrated while rarely "predicting" a draw.
UK and US terminology
UK: "1X2", "match result" or "full-time result". US: "three-way moneyline" or "soccer moneyline (3-way)". Same market.
Common mistakes with 1X2
- Assuming extra time counts. A team that wins on penalties has drawn for 1X2 purposes.
- Forgetting the draw. A 55% favourite still fails to win 45% of the time, often by drawing.
- Reading odds as true chances. Implied probabilities include the margin; see how to calculate implied probability.
- Mixing up home and away at neutral venues. The team listed first is "1".
See today's home win and away win predictions for match-by-match 1X2 probabilities.
How do 1X2 probabilities change for neutral venues and cup ties?
At a neutral venue there is no home advantage, so our model removes the home boost. Two evenly matched teams then have roughly equal win chances, with the draw around 26–28%. Tournament matches, such as many World Cup and European Championship games, are handled this way, and our pages label them as neutral.
In knockout ties the 1X2 market still only covers 90 minutes. A team that is clearly stronger may be priced to progress at short odds while its 1X2 win chance is much lower, because a draw after 90 minutes is common. Check you are looking at the right market: 'to qualify' or 'to lift the trophy' are different bets from the match result.
Frequently asked questions
- What does X mean in football betting?
- X means a draw. In the 1X2 market, 1 is a home win, X a draw and 2 an away win.
- Does 1X2 include extra time and penalties?
- No. 1X2 is settled on the 90-minute score plus stoppage time. A cup tie that is 1-1 after 90 minutes is a draw for 1X2, whoever goes through.
- What does 1X mean?
- 1X is a double chance bet: it wins if the home team wins or the match is drawn. See our double chance guide.
- How often do football matches end in a draw?
- Roughly one match in four in the leagues we cover. The table on this page shows the current rate for each league.
Related pages
- Data study: Which Football League Is the Most Predictable?
- Today's home win predictions
- Today's away win predictions
- 1X2 accuracy record
- Double chance explained
- Draw no bet explained
- What Does Over 2.5 Goals Mean?
- What Does Over 1.5 Goals Mean?
- What Does Under 2.5 Goals Mean?
- What Does BTTS Mean? Both Teams to Score Explained
- All football betting guides
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