What is draw no bet?
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · Last reviewed
Draw no bet (DNB) is a football bet on one team to win where your stake is refunded if the match ends in a draw after 90 minutes. If your team wins, you are paid at the DNB odds; if it loses, you lose your stake. It removes the draw from the 1X2 market, so the odds are shorter than a straight win.
How does draw no bet work?
You pick a team. If it wins, you are paid. If it loses, you lose your stake. If the match is drawn after 90 minutes, the bet is void and your stake comes back. In effect the draw is taken out of the match result market, leaving a two-way choice between the teams.
Because you have insurance against the draw, DNB odds are shorter than the straight win price. How much shorter depends on how likely the draw is.
What do we show instead of a draw no bet page?
We don't publish DNB as its own market. Every match page shows home, draw and away probabilities, and the DNB chance is easy to derive from them, as the worked example below shows. Browse today's home win and away win predictions to start.
How often is a draw refunded?
Over the last five seasons in our nine leagues, 25.6% of matches ended level after 90 minutes. That is the share of DNB bets you would expect to be refunded across a random set of matches. The table shows the rate for each league.
| League | Period | Matches | Home win (1) | Draw (X) | Away win (2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | This season (2026-27) | 50 | 36.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1900 | 44.2% | 23.9% | 31.9% | |
| Championship | This season (2026-27) | 95 | 41.1% | 30.5% | 28.4% |
| Last 5 seasons | 2765 | 43.5% | 26.1% | 30.4% | |
| La Liga | This season (2026-27) | 69 | 44.9% | 24.6% | 30.4% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1900 | 45.7% | 26.2% | 28.1% | |
| Bundesliga | This season (2026-27) | 36 | 52.8% | 19.4% | 27.8% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1530 | 44.1% | 24.9% | 31.0% | |
| Serie A | This season (2026-27) | 50 | 44.0% | 18.0% | 38.0% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1900 | 40.4% | 27.2% | 32.4% | |
| Ligue 1 | This season (2026-27) | 45 | 40.0% | 28.9% | 31.1% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1677 | 43.5% | 24.5% | 32.0% | |
| Eredivisie | This season (2026-27) | 63 | 30.2% | 27.0% | 42.9% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1530 | 44.2% | 24.2% | 31.6% | |
| Primeira Liga | This season (2026-27) | 62 | 38.7% | 29.0% | 32.3% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1530 | 43.3% | 24.8% | 32.0% | |
| Brasileirão Série A | This season (2026) | 277 | 46.9% | 27.8% | 25.3% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1900 | 46.9% | 27.3% | 25.8% | |
| All nine leagues | Last five seasons | 16632 | 44.0% | 25.6% | 30.5% |
Source: ProbaPredict analysis of 17,379 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026. "Last five seasons" covers 2021-22 to 2025-26 (calendar years for the Brasileirão). Scores are after 90 minutes.
How do you calculate draw no bet odds?
DNB probability for the home team = home win % ÷ (home win % + away win %). For the away team, swap them. Fair decimal odds = 1 ÷ that probability. This gives the price at which you would break even in the long run, ignoring the refunded draws.
Worked example
Our model gives a match: home 44%, draw 28%, away 28%. Home DNB = 44 ÷ (44 + 28) = 61.1%, so fair DNB odds are 100 ÷ 61.1 = 1.64. Away DNB = 28 ÷ 72 = 38.9%, fair odds 2.57. Compare those with the straight win prices of 2.27 (home) and 3.57 (away): the DNB prices are shorter because the draw no longer loses.
Suppose you stake 10 on home DNB at 1.70. If the home team wins (44%), you get back 17.00. If it's a draw (28%), you get your 10 back. If the away team wins (28%), you lose 10. Expected return = 0.44 × 17 + 0.28 × 10 + 0.28 × 0 = 10.28, a +2.8% edge against our model's probabilities. A positive edge means the price is above our estimate, not that the bet will win.
Draw no bet and Asian handicap
Draw no bet is identical to an Asian handicap of 0. Asian handicaps then extend the idea with lines such as -0.5 and +0.25. Our Asian handicap guide explains these.
UK and US terminology
UK: "draw no bet" or "DNB". US sportsbooks often call it a "two-way moneyline" or show it as a soccer "spread" of 0 (pick'em). The settlement is the same: push on a draw.
Common mistakes with draw no bet
- Thinking a refund is a win. A draw returns your stake; it adds no profit.
- Comparing DNB odds with win odds directly. They answer different questions; convert both to probabilities first.
- Forgetting extra time doesn't count. A cup tie level after 90 minutes is refunded.
- Assuming it lowers risk for free. The insurance is paid for through shorter odds.
When does draw no bet change the picture most?
Draw no bet matters most when the draw is likely. In an evenly matched game with a draw probability near 30%, removing the draw shortens the odds on each side considerably. In a lopsided game where the favourite has a 70% win chance and the draw is 18%, DNB on the favourite is only slightly shorter than the straight win, because draws are less common.
Leagues also differ. The table above shows draw rates by league; in leagues where draws are more frequent, a larger share of DNB bets will be refunded. Over a long run that changes how often you get money back, though not whether a given price is fair. Fairness depends only on the probabilities, which you can derive from any of our match pages.
Frequently asked questions
- What happens to draw no bet if the match is a draw?
- Your stake is returned. You neither win nor lose.
- How do I calculate draw no bet odds?
- Take the team's win probability and divide it by the win probabilities of both teams combined (ignoring the draw). Fair odds are 1 divided by that figure.
- Do you publish draw no bet predictions?
- Not as a separate market, but you can work it out from any match page: DNB home chance = home % ÷ (home % + away %).
- Is draw no bet the same as Asian handicap 0?
- Yes. An Asian handicap of 0 (also written 0.0 or level ball) settles exactly like draw no bet.
Related pages
- 1X2 explained
- Double chance explained
- Asian handicap explained
- Today's away win probabilities
- What Does Over 2.5 Goals Mean?
- What Does Over 1.5 Goals Mean?
- What Does Under 2.5 Goals Mean?
- What Does BTTS Mean? Both Teams to Score Explained
- All football betting guides
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