Brasileirão Série A Predictions 2026: Title, Top 4 and Relegation Probabilities
ProbaPredict's model gives CR Flamengo a 74% chance of winning the Brasileirão Série A title, ahead of SE Palmeiras (26%) and CA Paranaense (<1%). Chapecoense AF are the most likely to go down (>99%). Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 103 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 28 | 60 | 80.1 | 74% | >99% | 0% |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 28 | 57 | 76.4 | 26% | >99% | 0% |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 28 | 48 | 63.7 | <1% | 67% | 0% |
| 4 |  Paranaense | 28 | 49 | 63.2 | <1% | 62% | 0% |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 28 | 45 | 60.5 | 0% | 35% | 0% |
| 6 |  Bahia | 28 | 46 | 59.0 | 0% | 24% | 0% |
| 7 |  Mineiro | 27 | 40 | 54.7 | 0% | 6% | <1% |
| 8 |  Santos | 27 | 38 | 51.8 | 0% | 2% | 1% |
| 9 |  Botafogo | 28 | 35 | 51.1 | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| 10 |  São Paulo | 27 | 36 | 50.9 | 0% | 2% | 1% |
| 11 |  Bragantino | 27 | 36 | 50.6 | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 28 | 38 | 49.1 | 0% | <1% | 5% |
| 13 |  Mirassol | 28 | 32 | 46.4 | 0% | <1% | 15% |
| 14 |  Corinthians | 28 | 32 | 45.2 | 0% | 0% | 19% |
| 15 |  Vasco da Gama | 27 | 31 | 44.8 | 0% | <1% | 25% |
| 16 |  Vitória | 28 | 33 | 44.7 | 0% | <1% | 26% |
| 17 |  Grêmio | 28 | 29 | 41.2 | 0% | 0% | 54% |
| 18 |  Internacional | 28 | 28 | 40.8 | 0% | 0% | 56% |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 28 | 23 | 34.2 | 0% | 0% | 94% |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 27 | 18 | 28.3 | 0% | 0% | >99% |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 74 | 25 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Palmeiras | 26 | 71 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Paranaense | 2 | 32 | 28 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| Fluminense | 2 | 38 | 27 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| Cruzeiro | 15 | 20 | 22 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Bahia | 8 | 15 | 21 | 22 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Mineiro | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Santos | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||||
| Botafogo | 2 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| São Paulo | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| Bragantino | 2 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||||
| Coritiba | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||||||
| Mirassol | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 5 | ||||||||
| Corinthians | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 2 | |||||||
| Vasco da Gama | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 3 | |||||||
| Vitória | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 2 | ||||||||
| Grêmio | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 22 | 11 | ||||||||||
| Internacional | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 19 | 26 | 9 | |||||||||||
| Clube do Remo | 1 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 57 | 17 | ||||||||||||||
| Chapecoense | 2 | 15 | 81 |
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Brasileirão Série A?
- CR Flamengo (74%), followed by SE Palmeiras (26%) and CA Paranaense (<1%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the Brasileirão Série A?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates Chapecoense AF (>99%), Clube do Remo (94%), SC Internacional (56%), Grêmio FBPA (54%) as the most likely. 4 teams go down automatically.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK.