Primeira Liga Predictions 2026-27: Title, Top 2 and Relegation Probabilities
ProbaPredict's model gives FC Porto a 43% chance of winning the Primeira Liga title, ahead of Sport Lisboa e Benfica (29%) and Sporting Clube de Portugal (26%). Casa Pia AC are the most likely to go down (47%). Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 244 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | Title | Top 2 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 7 | 21 | 77.1 | 43% | 74% | 0% |
| 2 |  SL Benfica | 7 | 16 | 74.3 | 29% | 62% | 0% |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 7 | 15 | 73.8 | 26% | 57% | 0% |
| 4 |  Braga | 6 | 11 | 59.2 | 1% | 5% | 0% |
| 5 |  Santa Clara | 7 | 15 | 51.5 | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 6 |  Famalicão | 7 | 7 | 48.4 | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| 7 |  Acad. Viseu | 7 | 11 | 47.0 | <1% | 2% | 5% |
| 8 |  Arouca | 7 | 11 | 45.6 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 6 | 8 | 44.3 | 0% | <1% | 2% |
| 10 |  Marítimo | 7 | 8 | 39.5 | <1% | <1% | 17% |
| 11 |  Amadora | 7 | 10 | 39.0 | 0% | <1% | 8% |
| 12 |  Alverca | 7 | 8 | 38.8 | 0% | <1% | 9% |
| 13 |  Moreirense | 7 | 8 | 39.0 | 0% | 0% | 9% |
| 14 |  Vitória SC | 7 | 5 | 37.7 | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| 15 |  Estoril Praia | 7 | 2 | 34.3 | 0% | 0% | 22% |
| 16 |  CD Nacional | 7 | 4 | 32.3 | 0% | 0% | 29% |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 7 | 4 | 30.4 | 0% | 0% | 40% |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 7 | 4 | 29.1 | 0% | 0% | 47% |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porto | 43 | 31 | 20 | 5 | ||||||||||||||
| SL Benfica | 29 | 33 | 29 | 7 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| Sporting CP | 26 | 31 | 32 | 8 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| Braga | 1 | 3 | 11 | 37 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Acad. Viseu | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Santa Clara | 2 | 12 | 20 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||||||
| Marítimo | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 10 | |||
| Famalicão | 7 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Arouca | 5 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Gil Vicente | 3 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Amadora | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| Alverca | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| Moreirense | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| Vitória SC | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | ||||
| Estoril Praia | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | ||||
| CD Nacional | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | ||||||
| Rio Ave | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 18 | 22 | |||||||
| Casa Pia | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 20 | 27 |
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Primeira Liga?
- FC Porto (43%), followed by Sport Lisboa e Benfica (29%) and Sporting Clube de Portugal (26%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the Primeira Liga?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates Casa Pia AC (47%), Rio Ave FC (40%) as the most likely. 2 teams go down automatically and the team finishing 16th enters a relegation play-off.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK.