Championship Predictions 2026-27: Title, Promotion and Relegation Probabilities
ProbaPredict's model gives West Ham United FC a 50% chance of winning the Championship title, ahead of Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (14%) and Middlesbrough FC (10%). Preston North End FC are the most likely to go down (50%). Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 457 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | Title | Promoted | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 8 | 15 | 87.9 | 50% | 77% | 0% |
| 2 |  Wolverhampton | 7 | 14 | 77.8 | 14% | 41% | <1% |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 8 | 15 | 76.5 | 10% | 36% | <1% |
| 4 |  Southampton | 8 | 10 | 72.4 | 6% | 27% | 1% |
| 5 |  Swansea | 8 | 17 | 71.0 | 4% | 18% | 1% |
| 6 |  Millwall | 8 | 11 | 67.8 | 2% | 13% | 2% |
| 7 |  Birmingham | 8 | 11 | 65.1 | 1% | 10% | 4% |
| 8 |  West Brom | 8 | 14 | 64.5 | 1% | 7% | 3% |
| 9 |  Norwich | 8 | 9 | 63.9 | 1% | 8% | 5% |
| 10 |  Bristol City | 8 | 13 | 63.9 | 1% | 7% | 4% |
| 11 |  Burnley | 8 | 4 | 63.5 | 1% | 8% | 5% |
| 12 |  Sheffield Utd | 8 | 9 | 63.4 | 1% | 7% | 5% |
| 13 |  Wrexham | 8 | 10 | 63.0 | 1% | 8% | 7% |
| 14 |  Lincoln City | 8 | 11 | 60.3 | 3% | 11% | 19% |
| 15 |  Stoke | 8 | 13 | 59.5 | <1% | 3% | 10% |
| 16 |  QPR | 8 | 13 | 59.0 | <1% | 3% | 11% |
| 17 |  Bolton | 8 | 10 | 58.0 | 3% | 10% | 25% |
| 18 |  Blackburn | 8 | 9 | 56.4 | <1% | 2% | 15% |
| 19 |  Derby County | 8 | 5 | 54.9 | <1% | 1% | 20% |
| 20 |  Charlton | 8 | 12 | 53.7 | <1% | 1% | 25% |
| 21 |  Portsmouth | 7 | 8 | 52.5 | <1% | 1% | 28% |
| 22 |  Cardiff | 8 | 7 | 51.6 | <1% | 2% | 33% |
| 23 |  Watford | 8 | 8 | 52.2 | 0% | 1% | 28% |
| 24 |  Preston NE | 8 | 4 | 46.6 | <1% | <1% | 50% |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
Includes a 4-point deduction for Southampton FC. Simulations start from the official table points.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 50 | 19 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Wolverhampton | 14 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Middlesbrough | 10 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Southampton | 6 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Swansea | 4 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Lincoln City | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Bolton | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 |
| Millwall | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Birmingham | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| West Brom | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Norwich | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Wrexham | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Sheffield Utd | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Bristol City | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Burnley | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| QPR | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| Stoke | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Cardiff | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | ||||
| Blackburn | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | |||
| Derby County | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | ||||
| Charlton | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | ||||
| Portsmouth | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | |||||
| Preston NE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 22 | |||||||||
| Watford | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. The play-offs (3rd v 6th, 4th v 5th over two legs, then a one-off final) are simulated too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Championship?
- West Ham United FC (50%), followed by Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (14%) and Middlesbrough FC (10%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the Championship?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates Preston North End FC (50%), Cardiff City FC (33%), Watford FC (28%) as the most likely. 3 teams go down automatically.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.