Serie A Predictions 2026-27: Title, Top 4 and Relegation Probabilities
ProbaPredict's model gives FC Internazionale Milano a 49% chance of winning the Serie A title, ahead of AS Roma (25%) and Como 1907 (8%). US Lecce are the most likely to go down (52%). Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 330 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 5 | 13 | 79.4 | 49% | 91% | 0% |
| 2 |  Roma | 5 | 13 | 74.4 | 25% | 80% | 0% |
| 3 |  Juventus | 5 | 10 | 67.5 | 7% | 53% | <1% |
| 4 |  Como 1907 | 5 | 10 | 67.4 | 8% | 52% | <1% |
| 5 |  Milan | 5 | 11 | 64.9 | 5% | 41% | <1% |
| 6 |  Napoli | 5 | 7 | 61.9 | 2% | 28% | <1% |
| 7 |  Lazio | 5 | 13 | 60.4 | 2% | 22% | <1% |
| 8 |  Atalanta | 5 | 6 | 58.5 | 1% | 17% | 1% |
| 9 |  Sassuolo | 5 | 7 | 50.3 | <1% | 4% | 6% |
| 10 |  Cagliari | 5 | 12 | 50.3 | <1% | 4% | 4% |
| 11 |  Frosinone | 5 | 10 | 49.4 | <1% | 3% | 7% |
| 12 |  Bologna | 5 | 2 | 46.0 | <1% | 1% | 12% |
| 13 |  Fiorentina | 5 | 4 | 45.2 | <1% | 1% | 14% |
| 14 |  Udinese | 5 | 4 | 43.7 | <1% | 1% | 18% |
| 15 |  Torino | 5 | 4 | 40.8 | 0% | <1% | 28% |
| 16 |  Monza | 5 | 4 | 40.2 | 0% | <1% | 29% |
| 17 |  Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 37.5 | <1% | <1% | 41% |
| 18 |  Parma | 5 | 4 | 37.4 | 0% | <1% | 41% |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 1 | 36.3 | 0% | <1% | 46% |
| 20 |  Lecce | 5 | 6 | 35.3 | 0% | <1% | 52% |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 49 | 24 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Roma | 25 | 26 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Como 1907 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||
| Juventus | 7 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||
| Milan | 5 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Napoli | 2 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Lazio | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Atalanta | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Sassuolo | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| Cagliari | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Frosinone | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Bologna | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | ||||
| Fiorentina | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | ||||
| Udinese | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | ||||
| Venezia FC | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 16 | |||||||
| Torino | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | ||||||
| Monza | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | ||||||
| Parma | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | |||||||
| Genoa | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 18 | |||||||
| Lecce | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 20 |
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Serie A?
- FC Internazionale Milano (49%), followed by AS Roma (25%) and Como 1907 (8%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the Serie A?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates US Lecce (52%), Genoa CFC (46%), Venezia FC (41%) as the most likely. 3 teams go down automatically.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.