Serie A Relegation Predictions 2026-27: Who Will Go Down?
ProbaPredict's model rates US Lecce (52%), Genoa CFC (46%) and Venezia FC (41%) as the teams most likely to be relegated from the Serie A, with 3 going down automatically. Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 330 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | xPos | Relegated | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lecce | 5 | 6 | 35.3 | 16.9 | 52% | 1.91 |
| 2 |  Genoa | 5 | 1 | 36.3 | 16.5 | 46% | 2.15 |
| 3 |  Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 37.5 | 16.0 | 41% | 2.45 |
| 4 |  Parma | 5 | 4 | 37.4 | 16.1 | 41% | 2.46 |
| 5 |  Monza | 5 | 4 | 40.2 | 15.0 | 29% | 3.40 |
| 6 |  Torino | 5 | 4 | 40.8 | 14.8 | 28% | 3.62 |
| 7 |  Udinese | 5 | 4 | 43.7 | 13.6 | 18% | 5.51 |
| 8 |  Fiorentina | 5 | 4 | 45.2 | 13.1 | 14% | 6.92 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 5 | 2 | 46.0 | 12.7 | 12% | 8.26 |
| 10 |  Frosinone | 5 | 10 | 49.4 | 11.4 | 7% | 15.04 |
| 11 |  Sassuolo | 5 | 7 | 50.3 | 11.0 | 6% | 18.18 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 5 | 12 | 50.3 | 11.0 | 4% | 22.99 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 5 | 6 | 58.5 | 7.8 | 1% | 131.58 |
| 14 |  Lazio | 5 | 13 | 60.4 | 7.2 | <1% | 312.50 |
| 15 |  Napoli | 5 | 7 | 61.9 | 6.5 | <1% | 370.37 |
| 16 |  Como 1907 | 5 | 10 | 67.4 | 4.8 | <1% | 1000.00 |
| 17 |  Milan | 5 | 11 | 64.9 | 5.6 | <1% | 1000.00 |
| 18 |  Juventus | 5 | 10 | 67.5 | 4.8 | <1% | 5000.00 |
| 19 |  Inter | 5 | 13 | 79.4 | 2.1 | 0% | – |
| 20 |  Roma | 5 | 13 | 74.4 | 3.0 | 0% | – |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Serie A?
- FC Internazionale Milano (49%), followed by AS Roma (25%) and Como 1907 (8%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the Serie A?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates US Lecce (52%), Genoa CFC (46%), Venezia FC (41%) as the most likely. 3 teams go down automatically.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.