Which football league is the most predictable?
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · Last updated · Data: 16,627 matches, 2021-22 to 2025-26
ProbaPredict's analysis of 16,627 matches found the Primeira Liga the most predictable of our leagues: margin-free closing odds scored a Brier score of 0.532 and the favourite won 57.3% of matches. The Championship was the least predictable (Brier 0.622, favourites won 47.6%).
Key findings
- Most predictable: Primeira Liga, Brier score 0.532, favourites won 57.3% with an average pre-match probability of 53.9%.
- Least predictable: Championship, Brier score 0.622, favourites won 47.6% (average probability 47.5%).
- Across all 16,627 matches the pre-match favourite won 53.2%; closing odds gave favourites 51.8% on average, so favourites won about as often as priced.
- Strong favourites (60% or more) failed to win 27.2% of 4,030 matches.
- The most predictable season overall was 2023-24 (Brier 0.570).
What changed since last month
This is the first edition. From next month, changes in the key figures are listed here automatically.
Which league is the most predictable?
Ranked by the Brier score of margin-free closing odds over 2021-22 to 2025-26 (completed seasons). A lower score means results landed closer to what the market expected.
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| Rank | League | Matches | Brier score | Favourite won | Avg favourite probability | Upsets (fav ≥60% failed to win) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Primeira Liga | 1,530 | 0.532 | 57.3% | 53.9% | 19.2% of 505 |
| 2 | Eredivisie | 1,530 | 0.552 | 55.8% | 56.1% | 27.5% of 561 |
| 3 | Premier League | 1,900 | 0.567 | 55.9% | 54.0% | 28.4% of 571 |
| 4 | La Liga | 1,900 | 0.574 | 54.5% | 51.1% | 25.0% of 436 |
| 5 | Bundesliga | 1,530 | 0.577 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 26.9% of 428 |
| 6 | Serie A | 1,900 | 0.577 | 53.7% | 52.1% | 29.0% of 507 |
| 7 | Ligue 1 | 1,677 | 0.586 | 52.9% | 52.2% | 29.6% of 426 |
| 8 | Brasileirão Série A | 1,900 | 0.600 | 50.8% | 49.2% | 30.3% of 290 |
| 9 | Championship | 2,760 | 0.622 | 47.6% | 47.5% | 32.4% of 306 |
How often does the favourite win?
The favourite is the side with the higher margin-free closing probability (home or away; draws are never the favourite here).
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How has predictability changed season by season?
Brier score by league and season. The latest season for each league is still in progress and is not used in the ranking.
| League | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | 2026-27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 0.546 | 0.504 | 0.531 | 0.549 | 0.534 | 0.569* |
| Eredivisie | 0.547 | 0.545 | 0.529 | 0.557 | 0.582 | 0.576* |
| Premier League | 0.554 | 0.571 | 0.527 | 0.575 | 0.608 | 0.636* |
| La Liga | 0.589 | 0.582 | 0.565 | 0.559 | 0.572 | 0.551* |
| Bundesliga | 0.582 | 0.593 | 0.559 | 0.589 | 0.562 | 0.571* |
| Serie A | 0.577 | 0.583 | 0.577 | 0.567 | 0.583 | 0.537* |
| Ligue 1 | 0.598 | 0.576 | 0.610 | 0.565 | 0.581 | 0.618* |
| Brasileirão Série A | 0.609 | 0.608 | 0.607 | 0.588 | 0.588 | 0.601* |
| Championship | 0.621 | 0.639 | 0.603 | 0.618 | 0.628 | 0.639* |
* season in progress. Brasileirão seasons are calendar years (2021-22 column = 2021).
Methodology
For every match with closing odds we converted the home, draw and away prices into probabilities and removed the bookmaker margin with the proportional method. Predictability is the Brier score of those probabilities against the 90-minute result (lower = results closer to expectations). The favourite is the side with the higher probability; an upset is a favourite priced at 60% or more that failed to win. Rankings use completed seasons 2021-22 to 2025-26.
Limitations
- Predictability depends on the spread of team strength as much as on randomness: a league with many lopsided fixtures scores better even if individual matches are no less random.
- Closing odds can be missing for a small number of matches. Draws are never counted as the favourite.
Download the data
Aggregated study figures only (no raw bookmaker odds). Licensed CC BY 4.0; attribution required: “Source: ProbaPredict (probapredict.app)”.
Download the data (CSV)How to cite
ProbaPredict Data Desk (2026). "Which Football League Is the Most Predictable?". ProbaPredict. https://probapredict.app/studies/most-predictable-football-league (accessed 2026-10-02). Licensed CC BY 4.0.
Historical results and closing odds: football-data.co.uk.
Previous editions
Related pages
- League predictions
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- Today's home win predictions
- Our Model vs the Bookmakers
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