Archived edition from Fri, 2 Oct 2026. See the latest figures.

Which Football League Is the Most Predictable? (2026-10)

By ProbaPredict Data Desk · Data: 16,627 matches, 2021-22 to 2025-26

ProbaPredict's analysis of 16,627 matches found the Primeira Liga the most predictable of our leagues: margin-free closing odds scored a Brier score of 0.532 and the favourite won 57.3% of matches. The Championship was the least predictable (Brier 0.622, favourites won 47.6%).

Key findings

• Most predictable: Primeira Liga, Brier score 0.532, favourites won 57.3% with an average pre-match probability of 53.9%.
• Least predictable: Championship, Brier score 0.622, favourites won 47.6% (average probability 47.5%).
• Across all 16,627 matches the pre-match favourite won 53.2%; closing odds gave favourites 51.8% on average, so favourites won about as often as priced.
• Strong favourites (60% or more) failed to win 27.2% of 4,030 matches.
• The most predictable season overall was 2023-24 (Brier 0.570).

Key figures

• Matches analysed: 16,627
• Brier score, most predictable (Primeira Liga): 0.532
• Brier score, least predictable (Championship): 0.622
• Favourite win rate (all leagues): 53.2%
• Strong-favourite upset rate: 27.2%

18+. Statistical findings, not betting advice. BeGambleAware.org · GamStop.