Press and data
Figures from the ProbaPredict Data Desk's football data studies may be quoted and republished under CC BY 4.0 with the attribution “Source: ProbaPredict (probapredict.app)”. Numbers update daily; please cite the date you accessed them.
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Our Model vs the Bookmakers: 18,807 Matches Tested
Closing odds were 2.8% more accurate than our model across 18,807 matches.
- Gap (%, positive = closing odds more accurate): 2.77
- Over/Under 2.5 gap (%): 2.71
- Disagreements where the market was closer: 62.4%
Citation: ProbaPredict Data Desk (2026). "Our Model vs the Bookmakers: 18,807 Matches Tested". ProbaPredict. https://probapredict.app/studies/model-vs-bookmakers (accessed 2026-10-02). Licensed CC BY 4.0.
Data (CSV)Calibration: our model vs margin-free closing odds (SVG)Brier score gap by league (SVG)Brier score by season (SVG)
Which Football League Is the Most Predictable?
The Primeira Liga was the most predictable league; the Championship the least.
- Matches analysed: 16,627
- Brier score, most predictable (Primeira Liga): 0.532
- Brier score, least predictable (Championship): 0.622
Citation: ProbaPredict Data Desk (2026). "Which Football League Is the Most Predictable?". ProbaPredict. https://probapredict.app/studies/most-predictable-football-league (accessed 2026-10-02). Licensed CC BY 4.0.
Data (CSV)Predictability by league (Brier score) (SVG)How often the favourite won, by league (SVG)
Monthly press summaries
18+. Statistical findings, not betting advice. BeGambleAware.org · GamStop.