La Liga Predictions 2026-27: Title, Top 4 and Relegation Probabilities
ProbaPredict's model gives FC Barcelona a 79% chance of winning the La Liga title, ahead of Real Madrid CF (15%) and Club Atlético de Madrid (5%). Málaga CF are the most likely to go down (51%). Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 311 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barça | 7 | 21 | 90.8 | 79% | >99% | 0% |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 7 | 15 | 79.7 | 15% | 96% | 0% |
| 3 |  Atleti | 7 | 16 | 73.0 | 5% | 85% | <1% |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 7 | 16 | 64.6 | 1% | 52% | <1% |
| 5 |  Villarreal | 7 | 8 | 56.8 | <1% | 21% | 2% |
| 6 |  Athletic | 6 | 8 | 51.6 | <1% | 9% | 5% |
| 7 |  Sevilla FC | 7 | 13 | 50.5 | <1% | 6% | 7% |
| 8 |  Celta | 7 | 7 | 50.0 | <1% | 7% | 7% |
| 9 |  Real Sociedad | 7 | 10 | 50.3 | <1% | 6% | 8% |
| 10 |  Alavés | 7 | 11 | 49.2 | <1% | 5% | 8% |
| 11 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 8 | 48.2 | 0% | 4% | 11% |
| 12 |  Levante | 6 | 5 | 44.9 | 0% | 2% | 20% |
| 13 |  Osasuna | 7 | 8 | 44.4 | 0% | 1% | 21% |
| 14 |  Elche | 7 | 5 | 43.9 | 0% | 2% | 23% |
| 15 |  Getafe | 7 | 8 | 43.8 | 0% | 1% | 20% |
| 16 |  Deportivo | 7 | 10 | 43.8 | <1% | 1% | 22% |
| 17 |  Espanyol | 7 | 7 | 43.5 | 0% | 1% | 23% |
| 18 |  Santander | 7 | 7 | 41.5 | 0% | 1% | 33% |
| 19 |  Valencia | 7 | 4 | 40.0 | 0% | <1% | 39% |
| 20 |  Málaga | 7 | 3 | 37.2 | 0% | <1% | 51% |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barça | 79 | 16 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Real Madrid | 15 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| Atleti | 5 | 23 | 40 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| Real Betis | 6 | 18 | 27 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Villarreal | 1 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Athletic | 2 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Real Sociedad | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Sevilla FC | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Celta | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Alavés | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Deportivo | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | ||||
| Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| Levante | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |||
| Osasuna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |||
| Elche | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | |||
| Getafe | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | ||||
| Espanyol | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | ||||
| Santander | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 12 | ||||
| Valencia | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 15 | |||||
| Málaga | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 24 |
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the La Liga?
- FC Barcelona (79%), followed by Real Madrid CF (15%) and Club Atlético de Madrid (5%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the La Liga?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates Málaga CF (51%), Valencia CF (39%), Real Racing Club de Santander (33%) as the most likely. 3 teams go down automatically.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.