La Liga Relegation Predictions 2026-27: Who Will Go Down?
ProbaPredict's model rates Málaga CF (51%), Valencia CF (39%) and Real Racing Club de Santander (33%) as the teams most likely to be relegated from the La Liga, with 3 going down automatically. Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 311 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | xPos | Relegated | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Málaga | 7 | 3 | 37.2 | 16.4 | 51% | 1.96 |
| 2 |  Valencia | 7 | 4 | 40.0 | 15.3 | 39% | 2.59 |
| 3 |  Santander | 7 | 7 | 41.5 | 14.7 | 33% | 3.04 |
| 4 |  Espanyol | 7 | 7 | 43.5 | 13.6 | 23% | 4.43 |
| 5 |  Elche | 7 | 5 | 43.9 | 13.5 | 23% | 4.44 |
| 6 |  Deportivo | 7 | 10 | 43.8 | 13.5 | 22% | 4.50 |
| 7 |  Osasuna | 7 | 8 | 44.4 | 13.4 | 21% | 4.72 |
| 8 |  Getafe | 7 | 8 | 43.8 | 13.5 | 20% | 4.93 |
| 9 |  Levante | 6 | 5 | 44.9 | 12.9 | 20% | 4.99 |
| 10 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 8 | 48.2 | 11.4 | 11% | 9.23 |
| 11 |  Real Sociedad | 7 | 10 | 50.3 | 10.5 | 8% | 11.99 |
| 12 |  Alavés | 7 | 11 | 49.2 | 10.8 | 8% | 12.21 |
| 13 |  Celta | 7 | 7 | 50.0 | 10.4 | 7% | 14.08 |
| 14 |  Sevilla FC | 7 | 13 | 50.5 | 10.4 | 7% | 14.75 |
| 15 |  Athletic | 6 | 8 | 51.6 | 9.8 | 5% | 18.55 |
| 16 |  Villarreal | 7 | 8 | 56.8 | 7.6 | 2% | 54.05 |
| 17 |  Real Betis | 7 | 16 | 64.6 | 5.2 | <1% | 714.29 |
| 18 |  Atleti | 7 | 16 | 73.0 | 3.3 | <1% | 10000.00 |
| 19 |  Barça | 7 | 21 | 90.8 | 1.3 | 0% | – |
| 20 |  Real Madrid | 7 | 15 | 79.7 | 2.3 | 0% | – |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the La Liga?
- FC Barcelona (79%), followed by Real Madrid CF (15%) and Club Atlético de Madrid (5%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the La Liga?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates Málaga CF (51%), Valencia CF (39%), Real Racing Club de Santander (33%) as the most likely. 3 teams go down automatically.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.