Premier League Predictions 2026-27: Title, Top 4 and Relegation Probabilities
ProbaPredict's model gives Arsenal FC a 49% chance of winning the Premier League title, ahead of Manchester City FC (37%) and Liverpool FC (5%). Coventry City FC are the most likely to go down (51%). Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 330 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 5 | 12 | 79.3 | 49% | 95% | 0% |
| 2 |  Man City | 5 | 15 | 77.0 | 37% | 91% | 0% |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 5 | 9 | 64.7 | 5% | 51% | <1% |
| 4 |  Brighton Hove | 5 | 10 | 62.4 | 3% | 42% | <1% |
| 5 |  Brentford | 5 | 9 | 57.4 | 1% | 23% | 2% |
| 6 |  Newcastle | 5 | 8 | 56.4 | 1% | 19% | 2% |
| 7 |  Leeds United | 5 | 9 | 56.0 | 1% | 18% | 2% |
| 8 |  Chelsea | 5 | 7 | 55.0 | 1% | 16% | 3% |
| 9 |  Man United | 5 | 5 | 53.8 | <1% | 13% | 4% |
| 10 |  Everton | 5 | 9 | 51.7 | <1% | 9% | 5% |
| 11 |  Bournemouth | 5 | 3 | 50.8 | <1% | 8% | 7% |
| 12 |  Nottingham | 5 | 5 | 50.0 | <1% | 6% | 8% |
| 13 |  Aston Villa | 5 | 4 | 50.1 | <1% | 7% | 8% |
| 14 |  Fulham | 5 | 2 | 42.6 | <1% | 1% | 25% |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 5 | 4 | 42.1 | <1% | 1% | 28% |
| 16 |  Tottenham | 5 | 2 | 41.3 | 0% | 1% | 30% |
| 17 |  Sunderland | 5 | 4 | 40.1 | <1% | 1% | 35% |
| 18 |  Hull City | 5 | 8 | 38.3 | 0% | <1% | 44% |
| 19 |  Ipswich Town | 5 | 6 | 37.4 | 0% | <1% | 48% |
| 20 |  Coventry City | 5 | 3 | 36.6 | 0% | <1% | 51% |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 49 | 29 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Man City | 37 | 32 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Liverpool | 5 | 12 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Brighton Hove | 3 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Brentford | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Newcastle | 3 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Leeds United | 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Chelsea | 2 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Man United | 2 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Everton | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | ||
| Bournemouth | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Aston Villa | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Nottingham | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | ||
| Fulham | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | ||||
| Crystal Palace | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | |||||
| Sunderland | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | ||||||
| Tottenham | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | |||||
| Hull City | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 15 | |||||||
| Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 18 | |||||||
| Coventry City | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 22 |
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Premier League?
- Arsenal FC (49%), followed by Manchester City FC (37%) and Liverpool FC (5%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the Premier League?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates Coventry City FC (51%), Ipswich Town FC (48%), Hull City AFC (44%) as the most likely. 3 teams go down automatically.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.