Primeira Liga Top Two Predictions 2026-27: Who Will Finish in the Top 2?
ProbaPredict's model gives FC Porto a 74% chance of finishing in the Primeira Liga top 2 (champions league places), ahead of Sport Lisboa e Benfica (62%) and Sporting Clube de Portugal (57%). Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 244 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | Top 2 | Title | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 7 | 21 | 77.1 | 74% | 43% | 1.35 |
| 2 |  SL Benfica | 7 | 16 | 74.3 | 62% | 29% | 1.62 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 7 | 15 | 73.8 | 57% | 26% | 1.76 |
| 4 |  Braga | 6 | 11 | 59.2 | 5% | 1% | 21.88 |
| 5 |  Acad. Viseu | 7 | 11 | 47.0 | 2% | <1% | 57.80 |
| 6 |  Santa Clara | 7 | 15 | 51.5 | 1% | <1% | 200.00 |
| 7 |  Marítimo | 7 | 8 | 39.5 | <1% | <1% | 285.71 |
| 8 |  Famalicão | 7 | 7 | 48.4 | <1% | <1% | 454.55 |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 6 | 8 | 44.3 | <1% | 0% | 2000.00 |
| 10 |  Arouca | 7 | 11 | 45.6 | <1% | <1% | 3333.33 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 7 | 8 | 38.8 | <1% | 0% | 5000.00 |
| 12 |  Amadora | 7 | 10 | 39.0 | <1% | 0% | 10000.00 |
| 13 |  Moreirense | 7 | 8 | 39.0 | 0% | 0% | – |
| 14 |  Vitória SC | 7 | 5 | 37.7 | 0% | 0% | – |
| 15 |  Estoril Praia | 7 | 2 | 34.3 | 0% | 0% | – |
| 16 |  CD Nacional | 7 | 4 | 32.3 | 0% | 0% | – |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 7 | 4 | 30.4 | 0% | 0% | – |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 7 | 4 | 29.1 | 0% | 0% | – |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Primeira Liga?
- FC Porto (43%), followed by Sport Lisboa e Benfica (29%) and Sporting Clube de Portugal (26%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the Primeira Liga?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates Casa Pia AC (47%), Rio Ave FC (40%) as the most likely. 2 teams go down automatically and the team finishing 16th enters a relegation play-off.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK.