What is double chance in football betting?
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · Last reviewed
Double chance is a football bet that covers two of the three possible match results. 1X wins if the home team wins or draws, X2 wins if the away team wins or draws, and 12 wins if either team wins (anything but a draw). It is settled on the 90-minute score, and its probability is the sum of two 1X2 outcomes.
How does double chance work?
The standard match result market has three outcomes: home win (1), draw (X) and away win (2). Double chance lets you take two of them at once. There are three combinations:
- 1X: home win or draw. Loses only if the away team wins.
- X2: draw or away win. Loses only if the home team wins.
- 12: home win or away win. Loses only on a draw.
Covering two outcomes makes the bet more likely to win, so the odds are much shorter than either single result.
What do we show instead of a double chance page?
We do not publish a separate double chance market. Every match page shows home, draw and away percentages, and double chance is just two of them added together. For example, home 45% and draw 28% gives 1X = 73%. Start from today's home win or away win probabilities.
How often does each double chance land?
Using the last five seasons in our nine leagues: 1X (home or draw) landed in 69.5% of matches, X2 (draw or away) in 56.0%, and 12 (no draw) in 74.4%. The table below gives the underlying home, draw and away rates per league; add any two columns for the double chance rate.
| League | Period | Matches | Home win (1) | Draw (X) | Away win (2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | This season (2026-27) | 50 | 36.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1900 | 44.2% | 23.9% | 31.9% | |
| Championship | This season (2026-27) | 95 | 41.1% | 30.5% | 28.4% |
| Last 5 seasons | 2765 | 43.5% | 26.1% | 30.4% | |
| La Liga | This season (2026-27) | 69 | 44.9% | 24.6% | 30.4% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1900 | 45.7% | 26.2% | 28.1% | |
| Bundesliga | This season (2026-27) | 36 | 52.8% | 19.4% | 27.8% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1530 | 44.1% | 24.9% | 31.0% | |
| Serie A | This season (2026-27) | 50 | 44.0% | 18.0% | 38.0% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1900 | 40.4% | 27.2% | 32.4% | |
| Ligue 1 | This season (2026-27) | 45 | 40.0% | 28.9% | 31.1% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1677 | 43.5% | 24.5% | 32.0% | |
| Eredivisie | This season (2026-27) | 63 | 30.2% | 27.0% | 42.9% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1530 | 44.2% | 24.2% | 31.6% | |
| Primeira Liga | This season (2026-27) | 62 | 38.7% | 29.0% | 32.3% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1530 | 43.3% | 24.8% | 32.0% | |
| Brasileirão Série A | This season (2026) | 277 | 46.9% | 27.8% | 25.3% |
| Last 5 seasons | 1900 | 46.9% | 27.3% | 25.8% | |
| All nine leagues | Last five seasons | 16632 | 44.0% | 25.6% | 30.5% |
Source: ProbaPredict analysis of 17,379 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026. "Last five seasons" covers 2021-22 to 2025-26 (calendar years for the Brasileirão). Scores are after 90 minutes.
Worked example
Our model gives a match: home 38%, draw 29%, away 33%. Double chance probabilities are 1X = 67%, X2 = 62% and 12 = 71%. Fair decimal odds are 100 ÷ 67 = 1.49, 100 ÷ 62 = 1.61 and 100 ÷ 71 = 1.41.
You can also work backwards from bookmaker prices. If the 1X2 odds are 2.50 (home), 3.30 (draw) and 2.90 (away), the implied chances are 40.0%, 30.3% and 34.5%, totalling 104.8%. Removing the margin proportionally gives 38.2%, 28.9% and 32.9%. A fair 1X price would then be 1 ÷ (0.382 + 0.289) = 1.49. If the bookmaker's 1X price is 1.40, it carries a bigger margin than its 1X2 prices. Our implied probability calculator removes the margin for you.
When does double chance make sense?
It suits a view such as "I think the away side won't lose" rather than "they will win". It is not better or worse value in itself: you pay for the extra cover with shorter odds. The probabilities don't change because of the bet type; only the price does.
UK and US terminology
UK bookmakers call it "double chance". US sportsbooks sometimes list it as "double chance" in soccer menus, or as a "team to win or draw" option. American odds will usually be strongly negative, for example -200.
Common mistakes with double chance
- Thinking it's "safe". A 70% bet still loses three times in ten.
- Confusing 12 with "a winner on the day". 12 loses if the 90 minutes end level, even if someone wins on penalties.
- Overlooking the margin. Bookmakers can price double chance with a different margin from 1X2; compare both.
- Mixing it up with draw no bet. Double chance wins on a draw; draw no bet refunds on a draw.
How does double chance compare with Asian handicap +0.5?
They settle identically. Asian handicap +0.5 on the home team wins if the home team wins or draws, exactly like double chance 1X. The same is true for the away side and X2. The two markets are often priced by different teams at a bookmaker, so the odds can differ slightly; converting both to implied probability shows which is the longer price.
Double chance 12 (no draw) has no single Asian handicap equivalent, because Asian handicaps are always about one team. It is closest to backing both teams at draw no bet with half your stake each, which refunds on a draw rather than losing. That's another reminder to check exactly how each market settles before comparing prices.
Frequently asked questions
- What does 1X mean in double chance?
- 1X means home win or draw. You win unless the away team wins.
- What does 12 mean in betting?
- 12 means either team wins. It loses only if the match is drawn after 90 minutes.
- Do you publish double chance predictions?
- Not as a separate page. Add two of our 1X2 percentages on any match page: home plus draw gives 1X, draw plus away gives X2, home plus away gives 12.
- Is double chance the same as draw no bet?
- No. Double chance 1X wins on a draw; draw no bet on the home team refunds your stake on a draw instead.
Related pages
- What 1X2 means
- Draw no bet explained
- Today's home win probabilities
- Odds converter
- What Does Over 2.5 Goals Mean?
- What Does Over 1.5 Goals Mean?
- What Does Under 2.5 Goals Mean?
- What Does BTTS Mean? Both Teams to Score Explained
- All football betting guides
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