Is Over 1.5 goals a low-risk bet?

No bet is risk-free. Over 1.5 lands in roughly three matches out of four in the leagues we cover, so it still fails in about one in four, and the short odds mean one loss wipes out several wins.

Does 1-1 count as Over 1.5 goals?

Yes. 1-1 has two goals in total, so it is Over 1.5. So are 2-0 and 0-2.

What is the difference between Over 1.5 and Over 2.5?

Over 1.5 needs two goals, Over 2.5 needs three. Over 1.5 happens more often, so its odds are much shorter.

Does extra time count for Over 1.5?

No. Goals markets are settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

What does over 1.5 goals mean?

By ProbaPredict Data Desk · Last reviewed Fri, 2 Oct 2026

Over 1.5 goals means the match finishes with two or more goals in total, counting both teams, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Under 1.5 means zero or one goal. It lands in most matches, which is why bookmakers price it at short odds and why it is often used in accumulators.

How does Over 1.5 goals work?

The bookmaker sets a total-goals line of 1.5 and you pick a side. If the two teams score two or more goals between them in normal time, Over 1.5 wins. If the match ends 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1, Under 1.5 wins. It makes no difference which team scores or whether the goals come in the first minute or the 95th.

Which scores count as Over 1.5?

Over 1.5: 1-1, 2-0, 0-2, 2-1, 3-0, 2-2 and every higher score.
Under 1.5: 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 only.

Because only three scorelines lose, Over 1.5 is one of the most frequent outcomes in football. The flip side is that bookmakers know this, so the price is short, often between 1.25 and 1.40 in decimal odds (1/4 to 2/5 in fractional odds).

How often do matches have two or more goals?

Over the last five seasons, 75.7% of matches in our nine leagues finished with at least two goals. The Bundesliga led the way at 83.5%; the Brasileirão Série A was lowest at 69.8%. Put another way, roughly one match in 4 ends with fewer than two goals.

How often matches go over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals, by league

League	Period	Matches	Over 1.5	Over 2.5	Over 3.5	Goals per game
Premier League	This season (2026-27)	50	72.0%	52.0%	34.0%	2.82
Premier League	Last 5 seasons	1900	79.8%	56.6%	34.2%	2.93
Championship	This season (2026-27)	95	80.0%	64.2%	36.8%	2.92
Championship	Last 5 seasons	2765	72.7%	47.5%	24.2%	2.53
La Liga	This season (2026-27)	69	76.8%	56.5%	39.1%	3.04
La Liga	Last 5 seasons	1900	72.4%	47.4%	25.0%	2.59
Bundesliga	This season (2026-27)	36	86.1%	77.8%	61.1%	3.81
Bundesliga	Last 5 seasons	1530	83.5%	61.0%	40.8%	3.18
Serie A	This season (2026-27)	50	82.0%	54.0%	28.0%	2.90
Serie A	Last 5 seasons	1900	74.4%	48.9%	26.3%	2.61
Ligue 1	This season (2026-27)	45	77.8%	60.0%	33.3%	2.84
Ligue 1	Last 5 seasons	1677	77.2%	53.5%	31.5%	2.82
Eredivisie	This season (2026-27)	63	90.5%	76.2%	63.5%	3.81
Eredivisie	Last 5 seasons	1530	81.6%	59.1%	37.3%	3.06
Primeira Liga	This season (2026-27)	62	75.8%	54.8%	37.1%	2.74
Primeira Liga	Last 5 seasons	1530	73.3%	51.0%	28.4%	2.65
Brasileirão Série A	This season (2026)	277	78.3%	51.6%	25.6%	2.67
Brasileirão Série A	Last 5 seasons	1900	69.8%	44.3%	21.1%	2.41
All nine leagues	Last five seasons	16632	75.7%	51.6%	29.2%	2.73

Source: ProbaPredict analysis of 17,379 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026. "Last five seasons" covers 2021-22 to 2025-26 (calendar years for the Brasileirão). Scores are after 90 minutes.

How do we estimate the chance of Over 1.5?

Our model gives each team an expected-goals figure from its attack and defence ratings and home advantage, then turns those into a probability for every scoreline. The chance of Under 1.5 is the sum of 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1; Over 1.5 is everything else. The 0-0 cell gets special attention, because a plain Poisson model tends to underestimate low-scoring draws. The Dixon-Coles correction on our methodology page fixes that.

Worked example

Suppose the home side is expected to score 1.6 goals and the away side 1.1. Our model might give 0-0 about 8%, 1-0 about 11% and 0-1 about 7%. Under 1.5 is therefore 26% and Over 1.5 is 74%. Fair decimal odds for Over 1.5 are 100 ÷ 74 = 1.35 (about 7/20, or -286 in American odds).

Now look at what short odds mean in practice. At 1.35, a 10 stake returns 13.50, so 3.50 profit. One losing bet costs 10. You would need nearly three wins to make up for one loss. That is why a high hit rate on its own is not a good measure of a bet; the price matters just as much. The implied probability calculator shows what any price assumes.

Why does Over 1.5 appear in so many accumulators?

Because each leg is likely, bettors stack several Over 1.5 selections to reach bigger odds. But the probabilities multiply: four legs at 74% each give 0.74 × 0.74 × 0.74 × 0.74 = 30%, so the four-fold fails seven times in ten. Our acca calculator shows the combined chance of every leg winning, and our accumulator guide explains why.

UK and US terminology

UK bookmakers say "Over 1.5 goals". US sportsbooks list it as a soccer total, "Over 1.5", usually with a big minus price such as -300.

Common mistakes with Over 1.5 goals

Calling it a "safe" bet. A quarter of matches fail it.
Judging by hit rate alone. A 75% strike rate at 1.30 loses money over time, because 0.75 × 1.30 = 0.975.
Over-stacking accumulators. Each extra leg cuts the chance of the whole ticket winning.
Forgetting the game state. A team leading 1-0 may sit back, so late goals are less certain than the averages suggest.

See our Over 1.5 goals predictions for today for match-by-match probabilities and fair odds.

When is Under 1.5 goals more likely than usual?

Under 1.5 needs a 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1, so it becomes more likely when both teams' expected goals are low. That typically happens when two sides with strong defences and modest attacks meet, or when a much weaker team is expected to defend deep and the stronger side lacks a reliable way through. In our model, a match with a combined expected-goals total of around 2.0 gives Under 1.5 roughly a 40% chance, while a total of 3.2 pushes it below 20%.

League context matters too. Some leagues consistently produce fewer goals than others, and the table above shows how much the share of matches with fewer than two goals varies. Even so, the gap between teams within a league is usually larger than the gap between leagues, which is why match-level probabilities are more useful than league averages for any single fixture.

Frequently asked questions

Is Over 1.5 goals a low-risk bet?: No bet is risk-free. Over 1.5 lands in roughly three matches out of four in the leagues we cover, so it still fails in about one in four, and the short odds mean one loss wipes out several wins.
Does 1-1 count as Over 1.5 goals?: Yes. 1-1 has two goals in total, so it is Over 1.5. So are 2-0 and 0-2.
What is the difference between Over 1.5 and Over 2.5?: Over 1.5 needs two goals, Over 2.5 needs three. Over 1.5 happens more often, so its odds are much shorter.
Does extra time count for Over 1.5?: No. Goals markets are settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

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