How big is home advantage in football?
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · Last reviewed
Home advantage in football is real but smaller than many assume. Across the nine leagues we cover, home teams win noticeably more often than away teams and score more goals per game. Our model's fitted factor, updated daily, shows how much playing at home boosts a team's expected goals, and the tables below break it down by league and season.
How big is home advantage overall?
Over the last five seasons in our nine leagues, home teams won 44.0% of matches and away teams 30.5%, with 25.6% drawn. Home teams scored 1.52 goals per game against 1.21 for away teams, about 25% more. The gap between home and away win rates was largest in the Brasileirão Série A and smallest in the Serie A.
Home advantage by league and season
| League | Season | Matches | Home win | Away win | Home goals/game | Away goals/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 2021-22 | 380 | 42.9% | 33.9% | 1.51 | 1.31 |
| Premier League | 2022-23 | 380 | 48.4% | 28.7% | 1.63 | 1.22 |
| Premier League | 2023-24 | 380 | 46.1% | 32.4% | 1.80 | 1.48 |
| Premier League | 2024-25 | 380 | 40.8% | 34.7% | 1.51 | 1.42 |
| Premier League | 2025-26 | 380 | 42.6% | 30.0% | 1.53 | 1.22 |
| Premier League | 2026-27 (so far) | 50 | 36.0% | 32.0% | 1.52 | 1.30 |
| Championship | 2021-22 | 552 | 44.6% | 30.3% | 1.41 | 1.09 |
| Championship | 2022-23 | 552 | 41.1% | 31.9% | 1.32 | 1.11 |
| Championship | 2023-24 | 552 | 44.6% | 32.1% | 1.48 | 1.20 |
| Championship | 2024-25 | 552 | 45.8% | 25.9% | 1.43 | 1.02 |
| Championship | 2025-26 | 557 | 41.5% | 31.8% | 1.39 | 1.20 |
| Championship | 2026-27 (so far) | 95 | 41.1% | 28.4% | 1.64 | 1.27 |
| La Liga | 2021-22 | 380 | 43.4% | 27.4% | 1.42 | 1.08 |
| La Liga | 2022-23 | 380 | 47.9% | 28.7% | 1.46 | 1.06 |
| La Liga | 2023-24 | 380 | 43.9% | 27.9% | 1.48 | 1.16 |
| La Liga | 2024-25 | 380 | 44.5% | 30.0% | 1.45 | 1.17 |
| La Liga | 2025-26 | 380 | 48.9% | 26.6% | 1.57 | 1.12 |
| La Liga | 2026-27 (so far) | 69 | 44.9% | 30.4% | 1.71 | 1.33 |
| Bundesliga | 2021-22 | 306 | 46.7% | 29.4% | 1.76 | 1.36 |
| Bundesliga | 2022-23 | 306 | 47.4% | 28.1% | 1.86 | 1.32 |
| Bundesliga | 2023-24 | 306 | 43.8% | 29.7% | 1.81 | 1.41 |
| Bundesliga | 2024-25 | 306 | 38.6% | 36.3% | 1.63 | 1.50 |
| Bundesliga | 2025-26 | 306 | 43.8% | 31.7% | 1.78 | 1.46 |
| Bundesliga | 2026-27 (so far) | 36 | 52.8% | 27.8% | 2.39 | 1.42 |
| Serie A | 2021-22 | 380 | 38.9% | 35.3% | 1.50 | 1.36 |
| Serie A | 2022-23 | 380 | 42.4% | 31.3% | 1.41 | 1.15 |
| Serie A | 2023-24 | 380 | 41.8% | 28.7% | 1.43 | 1.18 |
| Serie A | 2024-25 | 380 | 39.7% | 31.8% | 1.34 | 1.22 |
| Serie A | 2025-26 | 380 | 38.9% | 35.0% | 1.28 | 1.15 |
| Serie A | 2026-27 (so far) | 50 | 44.0% | 38.0% | 1.48 | 1.42 |
| Ligue 1 | 2021-22 | 380 | 42.6% | 30.5% | 1.58 | 1.23 |
| Ligue 1 | 2022-23 | 380 | 42.9% | 32.9% | 1.49 | 1.32 |
| Ligue 1 | 2023-24 | 306 | 39.2% | 34.3% | 1.45 | 1.25 |
| Ligue 1 | 2024-25 | 306 | 46.7% | 33.0% | 1.61 | 1.37 |
| Ligue 1 | 2025-26 | 305 | 46.2% | 29.5% | 1.59 | 1.24 |
| Ligue 1 | 2026-27 (so far) | 45 | 40.0% | 31.1% | 1.56 | 1.29 |
| Eredivisie | 2021-22 | 306 | 43.1% | 35.9% | 1.57 | 1.29 |
| Eredivisie | 2022-23 | 306 | 44.8% | 31.4% | 1.73 | 1.33 |
| Eredivisie | 2023-24 | 306 | 43.1% | 32.0% | 1.77 | 1.47 |
| Eredivisie | 2024-25 | 306 | 45.4% | 29.4% | 1.70 | 1.29 |
| Eredivisie | 2025-26 | 306 | 44.4% | 29.4% | 1.80 | 1.38 |
| Eredivisie | 2026-27 (so far) | 63 | 30.2% | 42.9% | 1.71 | 2.10 |
| Primeira Liga | 2021-22 | 306 | 39.5% | 32.0% | 1.43 | 1.21 |
| Primeira Liga | 2022-23 | 306 | 49.0% | 33.0% | 1.42 | 1.08 |
| Primeira Liga | 2023-24 | 306 | 43.5% | 32.0% | 1.58 | 1.28 |
| Primeira Liga | 2024-25 | 306 | 43.1% | 31.0% | 1.40 | 1.17 |
| Primeira Liga | 2025-26 | 306 | 41.2% | 31.7% | 1.50 | 1.19 |
| Primeira Liga | 2026-27 (so far) | 62 | 38.7% | 32.3% | 1.32 | 1.42 |
| Brasileirão Série A | 2021 | 380 | 45.8% | 24.5% | 1.27 | 0.94 |
| Brasileirão Série A | 2022 | 380 | 44.2% | 27.4% | 1.41 | 0.98 |
| Brasileirão Série A | 2023 | 380 | 46.8% | 27.4% | 1.42 | 1.07 |
| Brasileirão Série A | 2024 | 380 | 47.4% | 26.1% | 1.41 | 1.03 |
| Brasileirão Série A | 2025 | 380 | 50.3% | 23.7% | 1.53 | 1.00 |
| Brasileirão Série A | 2026 (so far) | 277 | 46.9% | 25.3% | 1.52 | 1.15 |
Source: ProbaPredict analysis of 17,379 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
Our model's fitted home advantage: in today's fit, playing at home multiplies a team's expected goals by 1.232, a 23.2% boost, estimated across 10,527 recent club matches with recent games weighted more heavily. The away side gets no boost. Neutral-venue matches get none either.
Why do home teams do better?
There is no single cause. Crowd support, familiarity with the pitch and dressing room, no travel and possibly referee decisions all play a part. When matches were played without fans in 2020–21, many studies found home advantage shrank sharply, which suggests crowds matter a lot. Our data starts in 2021-22, after fans returned.
How does our model measure home advantage?
Raw win rates mix home advantage with team strength: a strong team's home games are easier to win anyway. Our model separates the two. It fits attack and defence ratings for every team and one home factor at the same time, so the factor reflects the boost from playing at home, not the quality of the home teams. That factor multiplies the home side's expected goals; matches at neutral venues get none.
Worked example
Two evenly matched teams each have expected goals of 1.30 at a neutral venue. With a home factor of 1.12, the home side's expected goals become 1.30 × 1.12 = 1.46, while the away side stays at 1.30. That small change moves the probabilities from about 37/26/37 (home/draw/away) to roughly 41/26/33. Fair odds for the home side shorten from 2.70 to 2.44.
Has home advantage changed?
Long-term studies suggest home advantage in English football has declined slowly over decades, from very high levels in the early 20th century. Season-to-season numbers in the table above move around too, partly by chance: a season of 380 matches still has noticeable random variation. That's why our model fits home advantage from recent data, updated daily, instead of using a fixed number.
UK and US terminology
UK: "home advantage". US: "home-field advantage" (or "home-pitch" in some soccer coverage). Same effect.
Common mistakes with home advantage
- Reading raw win rates as the home effect. Strong teams win at home anyway; models separate the two.
- Applying it to neutral venues. Cup finals and many tournament games have no true home side.
- Overrating it. It shifts probabilities by a few points, not tens.
- Treating one season as the truth. Numbers vary by chance from year to year.
Does home advantage differ between strong and weak teams?
Our model assumes one home boost for every team in proportion to its expected goals, which keeps the model simple and stable. Some research suggests the effect varies a little by club, stadium or travel distance, but those differences are hard to separate from random noise over a few seasons. A single shared factor, re-estimated daily from recent matches, captures most of the effect.
In percentage-point terms, the boost matters more for evenly matched games than for lopsided ones. A strong favourite at home wins often anyway; home advantage adds a few points to its chance. In a close game, the same boost can shift the favourite from one side to the other.
Frequently asked questions
- How often do home teams win in football?
- Over the last five seasons home teams won 44% of matches in the leagues we cover (between 40% and 47% by league), against 30% away wins. The tables on this page show the figures by league and season.
- Why does home advantage exist?
- Likely a mix of crowd support, familiarity with the pitch, no travel fatigue and referee decisions influenced by crowds. Research on matches played without fans during 2020–21 found home advantage shrank noticeably.
- How does your model use home advantage?
- It fits one factor that multiplies the home team's expected goals. Neutral-venue matches, such as many tournament games, get no boost.
- Which league has the biggest home advantage?
- It varies by season. Over the last five seasons in our data, the highest home win rates were in the Brasileirão Série A (46.9%) and La Liga (45.7%). The table shows the season-by-season figures.
Related pages
- Today's home win predictions
- Today's away win predictions
- How prediction models work
- Methodology
- Expected Goals (xG) Explained
- How Do Football Prediction Models Work?
- What Does a 60% Chance Really Mean?
- How Accurate Are Football Predictions?
- All football betting guides
18+. Gambling can be addictive; only bet what you can afford to lose. Free help: BeGambleAware.org · GamStop.