Bundesliga Relegation Predictions 2026-27: Who Will Go Down?
ProbaPredict's model rates 1. FC Union Berlin (46%), Borussia Mönchengladbach (36%) and Hamburger SV (23%) as the teams most likely to be relegated from the Bundesliga, with 2 going down automatically. Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 270 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | xPos | 16th | Relegated | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 1 | 31.5 | 15.2 | 13% | 46% | 2.17 |
| 2 |  M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 33.7 | 14.4 | 12% | 36% | 2.78 |
| 3 |  HSV | 4 | 3 | 37.3 | 13.2 | 11% | 23% | 4.44 |
| 4 |  1. FC Köln | 4 | 4 | 37.4 | 13.0 | 11% | 21% | 4.75 |
| 5 |  SC Paderborn | 4 | 4 | 39.2 | 12.3 | 9% | 16% | 6.42 |
| 6 |  Schalke | 4 | 5 | 39.9 | 12.0 | 9% | 14% | 7.13 |
| 7 |  Bremen | 4 | 7 | 40.3 | 12.0 | 9% | 13% | 7.76 |
| 8 |  Hoffenheim | 4 | 3 | 43.5 | 10.5 | 5% | 8% | 12.21 |
| 9 |  Augsburg | 4 | 7 | 43.1 | 10.7 | 5% | 7% | 13.83 |
| 10 |  Frankfurt | 4 | 5 | 44.9 | 9.9 | 5% | 6% | 17.45 |
| 11 |  Elversberg | 4 | 7 | 45.0 | 9.9 | 5% | 5% | 18.76 |
| 12 |  Mainz | 4 | 7 | 48.0 | 8.6 | 3% | 2% | 42.55 |
| 13 |  Freiburg | 4 | 10 | 51.3 | 7.4 | 1% | 1% | 83.33 |
| 14 |  Stuttgart | 4 | 3 | 53.4 | 6.6 | 1% | 1% | 111.11 |
| 15 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 6 | 52.8 | 6.8 | 1% | 1% | 128.21 |
| 16 |  Leverkusen | 4 | 7 | 59.7 | 4.6 | <1% | <1% | 714.29 |
| 17 |  Bayern | 4 | 10 | 84.1 | 1.1 | 0% | 0% | – |
| 18 |  Dortmund | 4 | 12 | 68.5 | 2.8 | 0% | 0% | – |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Bundesliga?
- FC Bayern München (90%), followed by Borussia Dortmund (8%) and Bayer 04 Leverkusen (1%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the Bundesliga?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates 1. FC Union Berlin (46%), Borussia Mönchengladbach (36%) as the most likely. 2 teams go down automatically and the team finishing 16th enters a relegation play-off.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.