Bundesliga Top Four Predictions 2026-27: Who Will Finish in the Top 4?
ProbaPredict's model gives FC Bayern München a >99% chance of finishing in the Bundesliga top 4 (champions league places), ahead of Borussia Dortmund (89%) and Bayer 04 Leverkusen (62%). Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 270 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | Top 4 | Title | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern | 4 | 10 | 84.1 | >99% | 90% | 1.00 |
| 2 |  Dortmund | 4 | 12 | 68.5 | 89% | 8% | 1.12 |
| 3 |  Leverkusen | 4 | 7 | 59.7 | 62% | 1% | 1.62 |
| 4 |  Stuttgart | 4 | 3 | 53.4 | 33% | <1% | 2.99 |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 6 | 52.8 | 32% | <1% | 3.17 |
| 6 |  Freiburg | 4 | 10 | 51.3 | 25% | <1% | 3.97 |
| 7 |  Mainz | 4 | 7 | 48.0 | 15% | <1% | 6.75 |
| 8 |  Elversberg | 4 | 7 | 45.0 | 9% | <1% | 11.16 |
| 9 |  Frankfurt | 4 | 5 | 44.9 | 9% | <1% | 11.16 |
| 10 |  Hoffenheim | 4 | 3 | 43.5 | 7% | 0% | 13.51 |
| 11 |  Augsburg | 4 | 7 | 43.1 | 6% | <1% | 16.98 |
| 12 |  Schalke | 4 | 5 | 39.9 | 3% | 0% | 29.15 |
| 13 |  Bremen | 4 | 7 | 40.3 | 3% | <1% | 33.90 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn | 4 | 4 | 39.2 | 3% | 0% | 34.48 |
| 15 |  1. FC Köln | 4 | 4 | 37.4 | 2% | 0% | 56.82 |
| 16 |  HSV | 4 | 3 | 37.3 | 1% | 0% | 69.93 |
| 17 |  M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 33.7 | 1% | 0% | 158.73 |
| 18 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 1 | 31.5 | <1% | 0% | 333.33 |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Bundesliga?
- FC Bayern München (90%), followed by Borussia Dortmund (8%) and Bayer 04 Leverkusen (1%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the Bundesliga?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates 1. FC Union Berlin (46%), Borussia Mönchengladbach (36%) as the most likely. 2 teams go down automatically and the team finishing 16th enters a relegation play-off.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:25 UK.