Levante UD vs Athletic Club prediction

La Liga · Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 19:00 UK

Full-time: Levante UD 3–1 Athletic Club (Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 19:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Levante UD a 35% chance of winning, and the exact score 3–1 a 3% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 3.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (37%)Incorrect
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (71%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (55%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (76%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (53%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (13%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (72%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Levante UD vs Athletic Club prediction (Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 19:00 UK): Levante UD 35% · Draw 28% · Athletic Club 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.21–1.26. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%).

Published Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 23:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Levante vs Athletic pre-match preview

Levante (11th, 10 pts) host Athletic (13th, 9 pts) in the La Liga. Levante have taken 3 points from their last 5 games (DDLLD) and Athletic 9 points from 5 (DDDWW), so Athletic arrive in clearly better form. Levante: both teams scored in each of their last 5 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Levante 35%, Athletic 37%. Expected goals are 1.21 for Levante and 1.26 for Athletic, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 55%, while 56% of La Liga matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Levante didn't win any, Athletic won 3 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 55%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Levante UD vs Athletic Club?

This is close to a coin flip: Levante UD 35%, Athletic Club 37%, with the draw at 28%. Recent form: Levante UD DDLLDW, Athletic Club DDDWWL (latest first).

Athletic won 3 of 4 of the last 4 meetings.

Levante UD

35%

Draw

28%

Athletic Club

37%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 55%; Over 2.5 is 45%.

Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Athletic away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	71%	29%	1.41
2.5 goals	45%	55%	2.23
3.5 goals	24%	76%	4.23

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: Levante UD score in about 70% of simulated outcomes and Athletic Club in about 72%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 4 Levante home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	53%	1.90
No	47%	2.11

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Levante UD win	35%	2.88
Draw	28%	3.56
Athletic Club win	37%	2.69
Over 2.5	45%	2.23
Under 2.5	55%	1.81

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Levante UD goals (rows) × Athletic Club goals (columns)
Levante \ Athletic	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9%	10%	7%	3%	1%	0%
1	10%	13%	8%	3%	1%	0%
2	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

0-1

10%

1-0

10%

0-0

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Levante and Athletic played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Levante, last 5

Levante, last 5 at home

Athletic, last 5

Athletic, last 5 away

Current streaks

Levante: both teams scored in each of their last 5 league games.
Levante: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Athletic have not won in their last 4 league games.
Levante are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Levante and Athletic.

How Levante and Athletic compare this season

Stat	Levante (home, 4)	Athletic (away, 4)	La Liga average
Over 1.5	100% (4/4)	75% (3/4)	76%
Over 2.5	100% (4/4)	25% (1/4)	56%
Over 3.5	100% (4/4)	25% (1/4)	39%
BTTS	100% (4/4)	25% (1/4)	60%
Win %	50% (2/4)	25% (1/4)	44% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	3.25	0.75	1.54
Goals against per game	2.50	1.25	1.54

La Liga average from 89 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

La Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Levante	11	10	9
Athletic	13	9	8

Full La Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Levante 0 wins, 1 draw, Athletic 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 8 Feb 2026	La Liga	Athletic v Levante	4–2
Sat, 29 Nov 2025	La Liga	Levante v Athletic	0–2
Mon, 7 Mar 2022	La Liga	Athletic v Levante	3–1
Fri, 19 Nov 2021	La Liga	Levante v Athletic	0–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Levante v Athletic?: Our model makes Athletic the more likely winner at 37%: Levante 35%, draw 28%, Athletic 37%. Athletic won 3 of 4 of the last 4 meetings.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Levante v Athletic?: Over 2.5 goals is 45% and under 2.5 is 55%, with expected goals of 2.5. Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Athletic away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Levante and Athletic played recently?: Latest first: Levante DDLLD, Athletic DDDWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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20:00 · La LigaLa LigaAtletivDeportivo	O1.581%	69%	19%	12%	81%	59%	36%	53%	59%	81%	36%	53%
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13:00 · La LigaLa LigaAthleticvGetafe	U3.590%	45%	33%	22%	53%	26%	10%	46%	26%	53%	10%	46%
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