La Liga · Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK
Full-time: RC Deportivo La Coruña 1–1 Levante UD (Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 26% chance, and the exact score 1–1 a 12% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.
4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.
How each market was graded
- 1X2 (match result): pick home (41%)Incorrect
- Both teams to score: pick yes (55%)Correct
- Correct score: pick 1-1 (12%)Correct
- Double chance: pick 12 (74%)Incorrect
- Over/Under 1.5: pick over (77%)Correct
- Over/Under 2.5: pick over (53%)Incorrect
- Over/Under 3.5: pick under (69%)Correct
Published before kick-off, unchanged
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs Levante UD prediction (Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): RC Deportivo La Coruña 41% · Draw 26% · Levante UD 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.50–1.31. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Deportivo vs Levante pre-match preview
Deportivo (9th, 11 pts) host Levante (11th, 10 pts) in the La Liga. Deportivo have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (LDLDW) and Levante 5 points from 5 (DLLDW). Levante: both teams scored in each of their last 5 league games.
Our model sees little between the sides: Deportivo 41%, Levante 33%. Expected goals are 1.50 for Deportivo and 1.31 for Levante, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).
The goal markets sit close to the La Liga norm: Over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 55%.
Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 55%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win RC Deportivo La Coruña vs Levante UD?
This is close to a coin flip: RC Deportivo La Coruña 41%, Levante UD 33%, with the draw at 26%. Recent form: RC Deportivo La Coruña LDLDWW, Levante UD DLLDWD (latest first).
Model expects 2.8 total goals.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 53% and Under 2.5 is 47%.
Over 2.5 in 6 of 9 Levante games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 77% | 23% | 1.29 |
| 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | 1.88 |
| 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | 3.23 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: RC Deportivo La Coruña score in about 78% of simulated outcomes and Levante UD in about 73%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 8 of 9 Deportivo games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 41% | 2.42 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 |
| Levante UD win | 33% | 3.05 |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.8 total goals.
| RC \ Levante | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 9% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Deportivo and Levante played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Levante: both teams scored in each of their last 5 league games.
- Levante: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
- Deportivo have not won in their last 5 league games.
- Levante are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
- Deportivo: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
- Deportivo: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Deportivo and Levante.
How Deportivo and Levante compare this season
| Stat | Deportivo (home, 5) | Levante (away, 5) | La Liga average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80% (4/5) | 60% (3/5) | 76% |
| Over 2.5 | 20% (1/5) | 40% (2/5) | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% (1/5) | 20% (1/5) | 39% |
| BTTS | 80% (4/5) | 40% (2/5) | 60% |
| Win % | 20% (1/5) | 0% (0/5) | 44% home · 28% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.20 | 0.40 | 1.54 |
| Goals against per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | 1.54 |
La Liga average from 89 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
La Liga table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| Levante | 11 | 10 | 9 |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Deportivo 0 wins, 0 draws, Levante 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 2; both teams scored in 2 of 2.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 25 Jan 2025 | SP2 | Deportivo v Levante | 1–2 |
| Thu, 24 Oct 2024 | SP2 | Levante v Deportivo | 2–1 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Deportivo v Levante?
- Our model makes Deportivo the more likely winner at 41%: Deportivo 41%, draw 26%, Levante 33%. Model expects 2.8 total goals.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Deportivo v Levante?
- Over 2.5 goals is 53% and under 2.5 is 47%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in 6 of 9 Levante games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Deportivo and Levante played recently?
- Latest first: Deportivo LDLDW, Levante DLLDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- RC Deportivo La Coruña
- Levante UD
- La Liga predictions
- La Liga table
- La Liga Home win
- La Liga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming La Liga predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.579% | 44% | 28% | 27% | 42% | 69% | 21% | 51% |
15:15 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.583% | 41% | 24% | 35% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 58% |
17:30 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.579% | 30% | 25% | 44% | 55% | 79% | 33% | 56% |
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.581% | 69% | 19% | 12% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 53% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.590% | 45% | 33% | 22% | 26% | 53% | 10% | 46% |
15:15 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.577% | 38% | 26% | 35% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 55% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Fri, 16 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FT · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.580%✓ | 47%✓ | 25%✕ | 29%✕ | 57%✓ | 80%✓ | 35%✓ | 59%✕ |
FT · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.588%✕ | 52%✓ | 21%✕ | 26%✕ | 70%✕ | 88%✕ | 49%✕ | 64%✕ |
FT · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.575%✓ | 38%✕ | 27%✕ | 35%✓ | 50%✓ | 75%✓ | 28%✕ | 56%✕ |
FT · Serie ASerie A  | O1.578%✓ | 43%✓ | 26%✕ | 32%✕ | 54%✓ | 78%✓ | 32%✓ | 54%✓ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.575%✓ | 44%✕ | 26%✕ | 29%✓ | 50%✓ | 75%✓ | 28%✕ | 53%✓ |