SC Heerenveen vs SBV Excelsior prediction

Eredivisie · Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 19:00 UK

Full-time: SC Heerenveen 4–0 SBV Excelsior (Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 19:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave SC Heerenveen a 47% chance of winning, and the exact score 4–0 a 2% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (47%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (80%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (57%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (65%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (59%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-1 (11%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (75%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

SC Heerenveen vs SBV Excelsior prediction (Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 19:00 UK): SC Heerenveen 47% · Draw 25% · SBV Excelsior 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.70–1.29. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 59%, No 41%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 21:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Heerenveen vs Excelsior pre-match preview

Heerenveen (8th, 12 pts) host Excelsior (10th, 11 pts) in the Eredivisie. Heerenveen have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (LWDLD) and Excelsior 5 points from 5 (LDLDW). Excelsior: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 18 league games.

Our model favours Heerenveen at 47% to Excelsior's 29%. Expected goals are 1.70 for Heerenveen and 1.29 for Excelsior, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Over 2.5 goals is 57%, below the Eredivisie rate of 75%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Eredivisie match. In their last 4 meetings, Heerenveen won 2 and Excelsior won 2; all had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win SC Heerenveen vs SBV Excelsior?

SC Heerenveen are favoured at 47%, but the draw and a SBV Excelsior win together still account for 53%. Recent form: SC Heerenveen LWDLDL, SBV Excelsior LDLDWW (latest first).

Excelsior have not won in their last 5 league games.

SC Heerenveen

47%

Draw

25%

SBV Excelsior

29%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 57% and Under 2.5 is 43%.

Over 2.5 in all 9 Excelsior games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	80%	20%	1.25
2.5 goals	57%	43%	1.74
3.5 goals	35%	65%	2.86

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance: SC Heerenveen score in about 82% of simulated outcomes and SBV Excelsior in about 73%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 6 of 9 Excelsior games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	59%	1.71
No	41%	2.42

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
SC Heerenveen win	47%	2.15
Draw	25%	4.07
SBV Excelsior win	29%	3.47
Over 2.5	57%	1.74
Under 2.5	43%	2.35

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.0 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: SC Heerenveen goals (rows) × SBV Excelsior goals (columns)
SC \ SBV	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	6%	4%	2%	1%	0%
1	8%	11%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	0%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

2-1

1-0

2-0

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Heerenveen and Excelsior played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Heerenveen, last 5

Heerenveen, last 5 at home

Excelsior, last 5

Excelsior, last 5 away

Current streaks

Excelsior: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 18 league games.
Excelsior: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 10 league games.
Excelsior have not won in their last 5 league games.
Heerenveen: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 4 league games.
Heerenveen: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. Heerenveen and Excelsior.

How Heerenveen and Excelsior compare this season

Stat	Heerenveen (home, 5)	Excelsior (away, 5)	Eredivisie average
Over 1.5	60% (3/5)	100% (5/5)	91%
Over 2.5	40% (2/5)	100% (5/5)	75%
Over 3.5	40% (2/5)	80% (4/5)	63%
BTTS	20% (1/5)	40% (2/5)	72%
Win %	40% (2/5)	40% (2/5)	32% home · 40% away
Goals for per game	1.40	2.20	1.92
Goals against per game	1.00	1.60	1.92

Eredivisie average from 81 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Eredivisie table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Heerenveen	8	12	9
Excelsior	10	11	9

Full Eredivisie table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Heerenveen 2 wins, 0 draws, Excelsior 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 7 Mar 2026	Eredivisie	Excelsior v Heerenveen	1–2
Sat, 4 Oct 2025	Eredivisie	Heerenveen v Excelsior	2–1
Fri, 19 Jan 2024	Eredivisie	Excelsior v Heerenveen	3–0
Sat, 23 Sept 2023	Eredivisie	Heerenveen v Excelsior	0–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Heerenveen v Excelsior?: Our model makes Heerenveen the more likely winner at 47%: Heerenveen 47%, draw 25%, Excelsior 29%. Excelsior have not won in their last 5 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Heerenveen v Excelsior?: Over 2.5 goals is 57% and under 2.5 is 43%, with expected goals of 3.0. Over 2.5 in all 9 Excelsior games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Heerenveen and Excelsior played recently?: Latest first: Heerenveen LWDLD, Excelsior LDLDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
15:30 · EredivisieEredivisieUtrechtvZwolle	O1.585%	63%	20%	17%	85%	65%	43%	59%	65%	85%	43%	59%
17:45 · EredivisieEredivisieWillem IIvCambuur	O1.583%	36%	24%	39%	83%	61%	39%	60%	61%	83%	39%	60%
20:00 · EredivisieEredivisieDen HaagvHeerenveen	O1.581%	34%	25%	41%	81%	59%	37%	59%	59%	81%	37%	59%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisieSittardvExcelsior	O1.581%	44%	25%	31%	81%	59%	37%	59%	59%	81%	37%	59%
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisieNECvGroningen	O1.585%	52%	22%	25%	85%	65%	43%	60%	65%	85%	43%	60%
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisiePSVvFeyenoord	O1.591%	55%	20%	25%	91%	76%	56%	64%	76%	91%	56%	64%

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