Fortuna Sittard vs SBV Excelsior prediction

Eredivisie · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 11:15 UK

Fortuna Sittard vs SBV Excelsior prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 11:15 UK): Fortuna Sittard 44% · Draw 25% · SBV Excelsior 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.68–1.39. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 59%, No 41%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Sittard vs Excelsior preview

Sittard (6th, 15 pts) host Excelsior (10th, 11 pts) in the Eredivisie. Sittard have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (DDWLW) and Excelsior 2 points from 5 (LLDLD), so Sittard arrive in clearly better form. Excelsior: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 18 league games.

Our model favours Sittard at 44% to Excelsior's 31%. Expected goals are 1.68 for Sittard and 1.39 for Excelsior, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Over 2.5 goals is 59%, below the Eredivisie rate of 75%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Eredivisie match. In their last 5 meetings, Sittard won 2, Excelsior won 2 and 1 ended level; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs SBV Excelsior?

Fortuna Sittard are favoured at 44%, but the draw and a SBV Excelsior win together still account for 56%. Recent form: Fortuna Sittard DDWLWW, SBV Excelsior LLDLDW (latest first).

Excelsior have not won in their last 5 league games.

Fortuna Sittard

44%

Draw

25%

SBV Excelsior

31%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 59% and Under 2.5 is 41%.

Over 2.5 in all 9 Excelsior games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	81%	19%	1.23
2.5 goals	59%	41%	1.69
3.5 goals	37%	63%	2.73

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance: Fortuna Sittard score in about 81% of simulated outcomes and SBV Excelsior in about 75%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 7 of 9 Sittard games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	59%	1.69
No	41%	2.46

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Fortuna Sittard win	44%	2.27
Draw	25%	4.08
SBV Excelsior win	31%	3.18
Over 2.5	59%	1.69
Under 2.5	41%	2.44

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Fortuna Sittard goals (rows) × SBV Excelsior goals (columns)
Fortuna \ SBV	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	6%	5%	2%	1%	0%
1	7%	11%	8%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	0%
3	4%	5%	4%	2%	1%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

2-1

1-2

1-0

2-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Sittard and Excelsior played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Sittard, last 5

Sittard, last 5 at home

Excelsior, last 5

Excelsior, last 5 away

Current streaks

Excelsior: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 18 league games.
Excelsior: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 10 league games.
Excelsior have not won in their last 5 league games.
Sittard are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. Sittard and Excelsior.

How Sittard and Excelsior compare this season

Stat	Sittard (home, 4)	Excelsior (away, 5)	Eredivisie average
Over 1.5	100% (4/4)	100% (5/5)	91%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	100% (5/5)	75%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	80% (4/5)	63%
BTTS	75% (3/4)	40% (2/5)	72%
Win %	25% (1/4)	40% (2/5)	32% home · 40% away
Goals for per game	1.25	2.20	1.92
Goals against per game	2.25	1.60	1.92

Eredivisie average from 81 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Eredivisie table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Sittard	6	15	9
Excelsior	10	11	9

Full Eredivisie table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Sittard 2 wins, 1 draw, Excelsior 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Fri, 20 Feb 2026	Eredivisie	Sittard v Excelsior	2–1
Sun, 19 Oct 2025	Eredivisie	Excelsior v Sittard	1–0
Sun, 3 Mar 2024	Eredivisie	Sittard v Excelsior	5–2
Sat, 26 Aug 2023	Eredivisie	Excelsior v Sittard	2–2
Sun, 21 May 2023	Eredivisie	Excelsior v Sittard	3–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Sittard v Excelsior?: Our model makes Sittard the more likely winner at 44%: Sittard 44%, draw 25%, Excelsior 31%. Excelsior have not won in their last 5 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sittard v Excelsior?: Over 2.5 goals is 59% and under 2.5 is 41%, with expected goals of 3.1. Over 2.5 in all 9 Excelsior games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Sittard and Excelsior played recently?: Latest first: Sittard DDWLW, Excelsior LLDLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
15:30 · EredivisieEredivisieUtrechtvZwolle	O1.585%	63%	20%	17%	85%	65%	43%	59%	65%	85%	43%	59%
17:45 · EredivisieEredivisieWillem IIvCambuur	O1.583%	36%	24%	39%	83%	61%	39%	60%	61%	83%	39%	60%
20:00 · EredivisieEredivisieDen HaagvHeerenveen	O1.581%	34%	25%	41%	81%	59%	37%	59%	59%	81%	37%	59%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisieNECvGroningen	O1.585%	52%	22%	25%	85%	65%	43%	60%	65%	85%	43%	60%
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisiePSVvFeyenoord	O1.591%	55%	20%	25%	91%	76%	56%	64%	76%	91%	56%	64%
15:45 · EredivisieEredivisieSpartavAjax	O1.583%	24%	23%	53%	83%	61%	39%	59%	61%	83%	39%	59%

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