AS Monaco FC vs Lille OSC prediction

Ligue 1 · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK

AS Monaco FC vs Lille OSC prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK): AS Monaco FC 44% · Draw 26% · Lille OSC 30%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.55–1.23. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 56%, No 44%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Monaco vs Lille preview

Monaco (5th, 14 pts) host Lille (4th, 14 pts) in the Ligue 1. Monaco have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (LDWDW) and Lille 4 points from 5 (LDLWL).

Our model favours Monaco at 44% to Lille's 30%. Expected goals are 1.55 for Monaco and 1.23 for Lille, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Over 2.5 goals is 53%, below the Ligue 1 rate of 63%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Ligue 1 match. In their last 5 meetings, Monaco won 1, Lille won 3 and 1 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 56%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win AS Monaco FC vs Lille OSC?

AS Monaco FC are favoured at 44%, but the draw and a Lille OSC win together still account for 56%. Recent form: AS Monaco FC LDWDWW, Lille OSC LDLWLW (latest first).

Monaco won 2 of 3 home games this season.

AS Monaco FC

44%

Draw

26%

Lille OSC

30%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 53% and Under 2.5 is 47%.

Over 2.5 in 2 of 3 Monaco home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	77%	23%	1.30
2.5 goals	53%	47%	1.90
3.5 goals	30%	70%	3.30

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance: AS Monaco FC score in about 79% of simulated outcomes and Lille OSC in about 71%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 2 of 3 Monaco home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	56%	1.78
No	44%	2.29

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
AS Monaco FC win	44%	2.26
Draw	26%	3.87
Lille OSC win	30%	3.36
Over 2.5	53%	1.90
Under 2.5	47%	2.11

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: AS Monaco FC goals (rows) × Lille OSC goals (columns)
AS \ Lille	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	7%	5%	2%	1%	0%
1	9%	12%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	0%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

1-0

2-1

2-0

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Monaco and Lille played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Monaco, last 5

Monaco, last 5 at home

Lille, last 5

Lille, last 5 away

How Monaco and Lille compare this season

Stat	Monaco (home, 3)	Lille (away, 3)	Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	67% (2/3)	79%
Over 2.5	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	63%
Over 3.5	33% (1/3)	0% (0/3)	38%
BTTS	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	63%
Win %	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	44% home · 32% away
Goals for per game	2.00	1.33	1.52
Goals against per game	1.00	0.67	1.52

Ligue 1 average from 63 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Monaco	5	14	7
Lille	4	14	7

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Monaco 1 win, 1 draw, Lille 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5; both teams scored in 1 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 10 May 2026	Ligue 1	Monaco v Lille	0–1
Sun, 24 Aug 2025	Ligue 1	Lille v Monaco	1–0
Sat, 22 Feb 2025	Ligue 1	Lille v Monaco	2–1
Fri, 18 Oct 2024	Ligue 1	Monaco v Lille	0–0
Wed, 24 Apr 2024	Ligue 1	Monaco v Lille	1–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Monaco v Lille?: Our model makes Monaco the more likely winner at 44%: Monaco 44%, draw 26%, Lille 30%. Monaco won 2 of 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Monaco v Lille?: Over 2.5 goals is 53% and under 2.5 is 47%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in 2 of 3 Monaco home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Monaco and Lille played recently?: Latest first: Monaco LDWDW, Lille LDLWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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