ProbaPredict

Arsenal FC crest Arsenal FC vs Lille OSC Lille OSC crest prediction

Champions League · Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Full-time: Arsenal FC 3–0 Lille OSC (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Arsenal FC a 61% chance of winning, and the exact score 3–0 a 8% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

Scores are after 90 minutes; extra time and penalties are not counted.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Arsenal FC vs Lille OSC prediction (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Arsenal FC 61% · Draw 25% · Lille OSC 14%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.61–0.61. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 47%, No 53%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (17%), 2-0 (14%), 0-0 (11%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Arsenal vs Lille pre-match preview

Arsenal host Lille in the Champions League. Arsenal have taken 12 points from their last 5 games (WLWWW) and Lille 9 points from 5 (WLWLW). Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 18 Champions League games.

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 61%, with Lille at 14%. Expected goals are 1.61 for Arsenal and 0.61 for Lille, and the most likely score is 1-0 (17%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 62%, while 74% of Champions League matches go over 2.5.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 62%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Arsenal FC vs Lille OSC?

Arsenal FC are clear favourites at 61%, with Lille OSC at 14%. Recent form: Arsenal FC WLWWWW, Lille OSC WLWLWD (latest first).

Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 18 Champions League games.

Arsenal FC61%
Draw25%
Lille OSC14%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 62%; Over 2.5 is 38%.

Under 2.5 in 9 of 15 Arsenal games last season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals66%34%1.52
2.5 goals38%62%2.60
3.5 goals19%81%5.39

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 47% chance: Arsenal FC score in about 80% of simulated outcomes and Lille OSC in about 46%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.2 total goals.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes47%2.11
No53%1.90

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Arsenal FC win61%1.63
Draw25%3.95
Lille OSC win14%7.40
Over 2.538%2.60
Under 2.562%1.62

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.2 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Arsenal FC goals (rows) × Lille OSC goals (columns)
Arsenal \ Lille012345
011%6%2%0%0%0%
117%11%3%1%0%0%
214%9%3%1%0%0%
38%5%1%0%0%0%
43%2%1%0%0%0%
51%1%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-017%
2-014%
0-011%
1-111%
2-19%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Arsenal and Lille played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Arsenal, last 5
  1. W 2–1 v Leeds
  2. L 0–3 at Brighton
  3. W 2–0 at Sunderland
  4. W 1–0 at Napoli
  5. W 2–1 v Chelsea
Arsenal, last 5 at home
  1. W 2–1 v Leeds
  2. W 2–1 v Chelsea
  3. W 3–0 v Coventry City
  4. W 1–0 v Burnley
  5. W 1–0 v Atleti
Lille, last 5
  1. W 1–0 v Le Havre
  2. L 1–2 at Nice
  3. W 2–0 v Troyes
  4. L 2–3 v Real Betis
  5. W 1–0 at Toulouse
Lille, last 5 away
  1. L 1–2 at Nice
  2. W 1–0 at Toulouse
  3. W 2–0 at Angers SCO
  4. W 1–0 at Monaco
  5. W 1–0 at Paris

Current streaks

Champions League games only, runs of three or more. Arsenal and Lille.

How Arsenal and Lille compare this season

StatArsenal (home, 1)Lille (away, 1)Champions League average
Over 1.5100% (1/1)100% (1/1)87%
Over 2.5100% (1/1)100% (1/1)74%
Over 3.50% (0/1)0% (0/1)63%
BTTS0% (0/1)0% (0/1)67%
Win %100% (1/1)0% (0/1)59% home · 30% away
Goals for per game3.000.002.05
Goals against per game0.003.002.05

Champions League average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Arsenal v Lille?
Our model makes Arsenal the more likely winner at 61%: Arsenal 61%, draw 25%, Lille 14%. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 18 Champions League games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Arsenal v Lille?
Over 2.5 goals is 38% and under 2.5 is 62%, with expected goals of 2.2. Under 2.5 in 9 of 15 Arsenal games last season.
What is the most likely score?
1-0 at 17%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Arsenal and Lille played recently?
Latest first: Arsenal WLWWW, Lille WLWLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

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Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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