Millwall FC vs Swansea City AFC prediction

Championship · Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Full-time: Millwall FC 0–1 Swansea City AFC (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Swansea City AFC a 28% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–1 a 9% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

2 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (44%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (51%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-1 (13%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (72%)Incorrect
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (69%)Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (58%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (78%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Millwall FC vs Swansea City AFC prediction (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Millwall FC 44% · Draw 28% · Swansea City AFC 28%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.36–1.02. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%).

Published Tue, 6 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Millwall vs Swansea pre-match preview

Millwall (12th, 15 pts) host Swansea (1st, 23 pts) in the Championship. Millwall have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (WDDLW) and Swansea 10 points from 5 (WWWLD).

Our model favours Millwall at 44% to Swansea's 28%. Expected goals are 1.36 for Millwall and 1.02 for Swansea, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 58%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Millwall won 3, Swansea didn't win any and 1 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Millwall FC vs Swansea City AFC?

Millwall FC are favoured at 44%, but the draw and a Swansea City AFC win together still account for 56%. Recent form: Millwall FC WDDLWL, Swansea City AFC WWWLDW (latest first).

Millwall won 3 of 4 of the last 4 meetings.

Millwall FC

44%

Draw

28%

Swansea City AFC

28%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 58%; Over 2.5 is 42%.

Under 2.5 in 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	69%	31%	1.45
2.5 goals	42%	58%	2.35
3.5 goals	22%	78%	4.61

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: Millwall FC score in about 74% of simulated outcomes and Swansea City AFC in about 64%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 5 Swansea away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	51%	1.96
No	49%	2.04

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Millwall FC win	44%	2.28
Draw	28%	3.53
Swansea City AFC win	28%	3.60
Over 2.5	42%	2.35
Under 2.5	58%	1.74

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Millwall FC goals (rows) × Swansea City AFC goals (columns)
Millwall \ Swansea	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10%	9%	5%	2%	0%	0%
1	12%	13%	7%	2%	1%	0%
2	9%	9%	4%	2%	0%	0%
3	4%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

12%

0-0

10%

0-1

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Millwall and Swansea played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Millwall, last 5

Millwall, last 5 at home

Swansea, last 5

Swansea, last 5 away

How Millwall and Swansea compare this season

Stat	Millwall (home, 6)	Swansea (away, 5)	Championship average
Over 1.5	83% (5/6)	80% (4/5)	77%
Over 2.5	83% (5/6)	80% (4/5)	61%
Over 3.5	50% (3/6)	20% (1/5)	36%
BTTS	33% (2/6)	60% (3/5)	64%
Win %	33% (2/6)	80% (4/5)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	1.83	1.80	1.44
Goals against per game	1.33	1.00	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Millwall	12	15	11
Swansea	1	23	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Millwall 3 wins, 1 draw, Swansea 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 4 Jan 2026	Championship	Millwall v Swansea	2–1
Sat, 27 Sept 2025	Championship	Swansea v Millwall	1–1
Sat, 26 Apr 2025	Championship	Millwall v Swansea	1–0
Sat, 26 Oct 2024	Championship	Swansea v Millwall	0–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Millwall v Swansea?: Our model makes Millwall the more likely winner at 44%: Millwall 44%, draw 28%, Swansea 28%. Millwall won 3 of 4 of the last 4 meetings.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Millwall v Swansea?: Over 2.5 goals is 42% and under 2.5 is 58%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 3 of the last 4 meetings.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Millwall and Swansea played recently?: Latest first: Millwall WDDLW, Swansea WWWLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Championship predictions

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