Sheffield United FC vs Derby County FC prediction

Championship · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK

Sheffield United FC vs Derby County FC prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK): Sheffield United FC 50% · Draw 25% · Derby County FC 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.63–1.09. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Sheffield Utd vs Derby County preview

Sheffield Utd (11th, 15 pts) host Derby County (23rd, 6 pts) in the Championship. Sheffield Utd have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (WLWLL) and Derby County 2 points from 5 (LLDDL). Derby County have not won in their last 7 league games.

Our model favours Sheffield Utd at 50% to Derby County's 25%. Expected goals are 1.63 for Sheffield Utd and 1.09 for Derby County, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 53%, against 64% across the Championship. In their last 5 meetings, Sheffield Utd won 3 and Derby County won 2; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Sheffield United FC vs Derby County FC?

Sheffield United FC are favoured at 50%, but the draw and a Derby County FC win together still account for 50%. Recent form: Sheffield United FC WLWLLW, Derby County FC LLDDLL (latest first).

Derby County lost 3 of 5 away games this season.

Sheffield United FC

50%

Draw

25%

Derby County FC

25%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 51% and Under 2.5 is 49%.

Over 2.5 in 7 of 11 Sheffield Utd games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	76%	24%	1.32
2.5 goals	51%	49%	1.95
3.5 goals	29%	71%	3.44

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: Sheffield United FC score in about 80% of simulated outcomes and Derby County FC in about 67%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 5 Derby County away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	53%	1.88
No	47%	2.14

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Sheffield United FC win	50%	2.01
Draw	25%	3.93
Derby County FC win	25%	4.01
Over 2.5	51%	1.95
Under 2.5	49%	2.05

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Sheffield United FC goals (rows) × Derby County FC goals (columns)
Sheffield \ Derby	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	7%	4%	1%	0%	0%
1	10%	12%	6%	2%	1%	0%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

1-0

10%

2-1

10%

2-0

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Sheffield Utd and Derby County played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Sheffield Utd, last 5

Sheffield Utd, last 5 at home

Derby County, last 5

Derby County, last 5 away

Current streaks

Derby County have not won in their last 7 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Sheffield Utd and Derby County.

How Sheffield Utd and Derby County compare this season

Stat	Sheffield Utd (home, 5)	Derby County (away, 5)	Championship average
Over 1.5	60% (3/5)	100% (5/5)	77%
Over 2.5	60% (3/5)	60% (3/5)	61%
Over 3.5	40% (2/5)	20% (1/5)	36%
BTTS	40% (2/5)	60% (3/5)	64%
Win %	40% (2/5)	20% (1/5)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	1.40	1.00	1.44
Goals against per game	1.20	2.00	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Sheffield Utd	11	15	11
Derby County	23	6	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Sheffield Utd 3 wins, 0 draws, Derby County 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 2 May 2026	Championship	Derby County v Sheffield Utd	1–2
Sat, 1 Nov 2025	Championship	Sheffield Utd v Derby County	1–3
Sat, 1 Feb 2025	Championship	Derby County v Sheffield Utd	0–1
Sat, 21 Sept 2024	Championship	Sheffield Utd v Derby County	1–0
Sat, 15 Jan 2022	Championship	Derby County v Sheffield Utd	2–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Sheffield Utd v Derby County?: Our model makes Sheffield Utd the more likely winner at 50%: Sheffield Utd 50%, draw 25%, Derby County 25%. Derby County lost 3 of 5 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sheffield Utd v Derby County?: Over 2.5 goals is 51% and under 2.5 is 49%, with expected goals of 2.7. Over 2.5 in 7 of 11 Sheffield Utd games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Sheffield Utd and Derby County played recently?: Latest first: Sheffield Utd WLWLL, Derby County LLDDL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Championship predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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