Portsmouth FC vs Sheffield United FC prediction

Championship · Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Full-time: Portsmouth FC 3–2 Sheffield United FC (Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Portsmouth FC a 33% chance of winning, and the exact score 3–2 a 2% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 3.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (40%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (53%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (13%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (73%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (74%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (51%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (73%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Portsmouth FC vs Sheffield United FC prediction (Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Portsmouth FC 33% · Draw 27% · Sheffield United FC 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.23–1.39. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%).

Published Wed, 7 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Thu, 15 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd pre-match preview

Portsmouth (13th, 15 pts) host Sheffield Utd (11th, 15 pts) in the Championship. Portsmouth have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (LDDWL) and Sheffield Utd 6 points from 5 (WLLWL). Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Portsmouth 33%, Sheffield Utd 40%. Expected goals are 1.23 for Portsmouth and 1.39 for Sheffield Utd, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 51%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Portsmouth didn't win any, Sheffield Utd won 3 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Portsmouth FC vs Sheffield United FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Portsmouth FC 33%, Sheffield United FC 40%, with the draw at 27%. Recent form: Portsmouth FC LDDWLL, Sheffield United FC WLLWLW (latest first).

Sheffield Utd won 3 of 4 of the last 4 meetings.

Portsmouth FC

33%

Draw

27%

Sheffield United FC

40%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 49% and Under 2.5 is 51%.

Under 2.5 in 14 of 23 Portsmouth home games last season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	74%	26%	1.35
2.5 goals	49%	51%	2.06
3.5 goals	27%	73%	3.73

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: Portsmouth FC score in about 71% of simulated outcomes and Sheffield United FC in about 75%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 6 Sheffield Utd away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	53%	1.88
No	47%	2.14

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Portsmouth FC win	33%	3.07
Draw	27%	3.68
Sheffield United FC win	40%	2.49
Over 2.5	49%	2.06
Under 2.5	51%	1.95

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Portsmouth FC goals (rows) × Sheffield United FC goals (columns)
Portsmouth \ Sheffield	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	10%	7%	3%	1%	0%
1	8%	13%	9%	4%	1%	0%
2	5%	8%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

0-1

10%

1-2

1-0

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Portsmouth, last 5

Portsmouth, last 5 at home

Sheffield Utd, last 5

Sheffield Utd, last 5 away

Current streaks

Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd.

How Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd compare this season

Stat	Portsmouth (home, 5)	Sheffield Utd (away, 6)	Championship average
Over 1.5	100% (5/5)	67% (4/6)	77%
Over 2.5	60% (3/5)	67% (4/6)	61%
Over 3.5	60% (3/5)	33% (2/6)	36%
BTTS	60% (3/5)	67% (4/6)	64%
Win %	40% (2/5)	33% (2/6)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	1.60	1.33	1.44
Goals against per game	1.80	1.33	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Portsmouth	13	15	11
Sheffield Utd	11	15	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Portsmouth 0 wins, 1 draw, Sheffield Utd 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 1 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 14 Feb 2026	Championship	Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd	0–1
Wed, 26 Nov 2025	Championship	Sheffield Utd v Portsmouth	3–0
Sat, 8 Feb 2025	Championship	Sheffield Utd v Portsmouth	2–1
Sat, 28 Sept 2024	Championship	Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd	0–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd?: Our model makes Sheffield Utd the more likely winner at 40%: Portsmouth 33%, draw 27%, Sheffield Utd 40%. Sheffield Utd won 3 of 4 of the last 4 meetings.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd?: Over 2.5 goals is 49% and under 2.5 is 51%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in 14 of 23 Portsmouth home games last season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd played recently?: Latest first: Portsmouth LDDWL, Sheffield Utd WLLWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Championship predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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