Norwich City FC vs Southampton FC prediction

Championship · Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Full-time: Norwich City FC 0–1 Southampton FC (Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Southampton FC a 38% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–1 a 6% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 3.

2 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (38%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (58%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-1 (10%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (76%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (84%)Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (64%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (58%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Norwich City FC vs Southampton FC prediction (Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Norwich City FC 38% · Draw 24% · Southampton FC 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.64–1.64. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 58%, No 42%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).

Published Wed, 7 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Thu, 15 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Norwich vs Southampton pre-match preview

Norwich (21st, 9 pts) host Southampton (8th, 17 pts) in the Championship. Norwich have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (LLLWW) and Southampton 10 points from 5 (WLWWD). Norwich have lost each of their last 5 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Norwich 38%, Southampton 38%. Expected goals are 1.64 for Norwich and 1.64 for Southampton, and the most likely score is 1-1 (10%).

The goal markets sit close to the Championship norm: Over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 58%. In their last 4 meetings, Norwich won 1, Southampton won 1 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 64%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Norwich City FC vs Southampton FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Norwich City FC 38%, Southampton FC 38%, with the draw at 24%. Recent form: Norwich City FC LLLWWL, Southampton FC WLWWDD (latest first).

Model expects 3.3 total goals.

Norwich City FC

38%

Draw

24%

Southampton FC

38%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 64% and Under 2.5 is 36%.

Over 2.5 in 8 of 11 Norwich games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	84%	16%	1.18
2.5 goals	64%	36%	1.57
3.5 goals	42%	58%	2.40

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance: Norwich City FC score in about 81% of simulated outcomes and Southampton FC in about 81%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 5 Southampton away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	58%	1.72
No	42%	2.38

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Norwich City FC win	38%	2.62
Draw	24%	4.19
Southampton FC win	38%	2.63
Over 2.5	64%	1.57
Under 2.5	36%	2.76

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.3 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Norwich City FC goals (rows) × Southampton FC goals (columns)
Norwich \ Southampton	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4%	6%	5%	3%	1%	0%
1	6%	10%	8%	5%	2%	1%
2	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	0%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

10%

2-1

1-2

2-2

1-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Norwich and Southampton played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Norwich, last 5

Norwich, last 5 at home

Southampton, last 5

Southampton, last 5 away

Current streaks

Norwich have lost each of their last 5 league games.
Norwich have not won in their last 5 league games.
Southampton: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.
Southampton have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 league games.
Southampton: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Southampton are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Norwich and Southampton.

How Norwich and Southampton compare this season

Stat	Norwich (home, 6)	Southampton (away, 5)	Championship average
Over 1.5	67% (4/6)	80% (4/5)	77%
Over 2.5	67% (4/6)	40% (2/5)	61%
Over 3.5	33% (2/6)	0% (0/5)	36%
BTTS	67% (4/6)	80% (4/5)	64%
Win %	33% (2/6)	20% (1/5)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	1.67	1.00	1.44
Goals against per game	1.67	1.20	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Norwich	21	9	11
Southampton	8	17	11

Includes a 4-point deduction for Southampton.

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Norwich 1 win, 2 draws, Southampton 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Wed, 18 Mar 2026	Championship	Southampton v Norwich	1–0
Sat, 13 Dec 2025	Championship	Norwich v Southampton	2–1
Mon, 1 Jan 2024	Championship	Norwich v Southampton	1–1
Sat, 12 Aug 2023	Championship	Southampton v Norwich	4–4

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Norwich v Southampton?: Our model makes Norwich the more likely winner at 38%: Norwich 38%, draw 24%, Southampton 38%. Model expects 3.3 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Norwich v Southampton?: Over 2.5 goals is 64% and under 2.5 is 36%, with expected goals of 3.3. Over 2.5 in 8 of 11 Norwich games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Norwich and Southampton played recently?: Latest first: Norwich LLLWW, Southampton WLWWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Championship predictions

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