ProbaPredict

Queens Park Rangers FC crest Queens Park Rangers FC vs Swansea City AFC Swansea City AFC crest prediction

Championship · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Queens Park Rangers FC vs Swansea City AFC prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Queens Park Rangers FC 37% · Draw 28% · Swansea City AFC 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.28–1.25. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

QPR vs Swansea preview

QPR (9th, 17 pts) host Swansea (1st, 23 pts) in the Championship. QPR have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (LWDDD) and Swansea 12 points from 5 (LWWWW), so Swansea arrive in clearly better form. QPR: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: QPR 37%, Swansea 35%. Expected goals are 1.28 for QPR and 1.25 for Swansea, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 54%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, QPR won 2 and Swansea won 3; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Queens Park Rangers FC vs Swansea City AFC?

This is close to a coin flip: Queens Park Rangers FC 37%, Swansea City AFC 35%, with the draw at 28%. Recent form: Queens Park Rangers FC LWDDDD, Swansea City AFC LWWWWL (latest first).

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Queens Park Rangers FC37%
Draw28%
Swansea City AFC35%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 46% and Under 2.5 is 54%.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals72%28%1.39
2.5 goals46%54%2.17
3.5 goals25%75%4.05

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: Queens Park Rangers FC score in about 72% of simulated outcomes and Swansea City AFC in about 71%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 7 of 11 QPR games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes53%1.90
No47%2.11

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Queens Park Rangers FC win37%2.72
Draw28%3.60
Swansea City AFC win35%2.82
Over 2.546%2.17
Under 2.554%1.86

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

Share:XWhatsAppTelegramFacebook

What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Queens Park Rangers FC goals (rows) × Swansea City AFC goals (columns)
Queens \ Swansea012345
08%10%6%3%1%0%
110%13%8%3%1%0%
27%8%5%2%1%0%
33%3%2%1%0%0%
41%1%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-113%
1-010%
0-110%
0-08%
2-18%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have QPR and Swansea played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

QPR, last 5
  1. L 0–3 at Birmingham
  2. W 4–1 v Derby County
  3. D 1–1 at West Ham
  4. D 2–2 v Preston NE
  5. D 1–1 at West Brom
QPR, last 5 at home
  1. W 4–1 v Derby County
  2. D 2–2 v Preston NE
  3. L 0–1 v Middlesbrough
  4. W 2–1 v Cardiff
  5. D 0–0 v Bolton
Swansea, last 5
  1. L 0–1 v West Ham
  2. W 1–0 at Millwall
  3. W 2–1 v Norwich
  4. W 2–1 at Lincoln City
  5. W 3–1 v Burnley
Swansea, last 5 away
  1. W 1–0 at Millwall
  2. W 2–1 at Lincoln City
  3. L 1–3 at Southampton
  4. W 3–0 at Derby County
  5. W 2–1 at Stoke

Current streaks

Championship games only, runs of three or more. QPR and Swansea.

How QPR and Swansea compare this season

StatQPR (home, 5)Swansea (away, 5)Championship average
Over 1.560% (3/5)80% (4/5)77%
Over 2.560% (3/5)80% (4/5)61%
Over 3.540% (2/5)20% (1/5)36%
BTTS60% (3/5)60% (3/5)64%
Win %40% (2/5)80% (4/5)39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game1.601.801.44
Goals against per game1.001.001.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

TeamPosPtsP
QPR91711
Swansea12311

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: QPR 2 wins, 0 draws, Swansea 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Tue, 21 Apr 2026ChampionshipQPR v Swansea1–2
Wed, 22 Oct 2025ChampionshipSwansea v QPR0–1
Mon, 21 Apr 2025ChampionshipQPR v Swansea1–2
Thu, 26 Dec 2024ChampionshipSwansea v QPR3–0
Mon, 1 Apr 2024ChampionshipSwansea v QPR0–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win QPR v Swansea?
Our model makes QPR the more likely winner at 37%: QPR 37%, draw 28%, Swansea 35%. Model expects 2.5 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in QPR v Swansea?
Over 2.5 goals is 46% and under 2.5 is 54%, with expected goals of 2.5. Model expects 2.5 total goals.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have QPR and Swansea played recently?
Latest first: QPR LWDDD, Swansea LWWWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Championship predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
12:30 · EFL ChampPortsmouth FC crestPortsmouthMillwall FC crestMillwallU3.578%34%29%37%43%70%22%51%
12:30 · EFL ChampCharlton Athletic FC crestCharltonNorwich City FC crestNorwichU3.577%32%28%40%45%71%23%52%
12:30 · EFL ChampSheffield United FC crestSheffield UtdDerby County FC crestDerby CountyO1.576%50%25%25%51%76%29%53%
15:00 · EFL ChampCardiff City FC crestCardiffBirmingham City FC crestBirminghamO1.575%34%27%39%50%75%28%54%
15:00 · EFL ChampStoke City FC crestStokeBristol City FC crestBristol CityU3.578%40%29%31%42%69%22%51%
15:00 · EFL ChampPreston North End FC crestPreston NEWest Bromwich Albion FC crestWest BromU3.579%31%29%40%41%68%21%51%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoCruzeiro EC crestCruzeiroClube do Remo crestClube do RemoO1.577%60%23%17%53%77%30%50%
12:30 · Premier LgAston Villa FC crestAston VillaManchester City FC crestMan CityO1.581%27%25%48%57%81%35%59%
13:00 · La LigaRayo Vallecano de Madrid crestRayo VallecanoElche CF crestElcheU3.579%44%28%27%42%69%21%51%
14:00 · Serie ACagliari Calcio crestCagliariBologna FC 1909 crestBolognaU3.579%32%29%39%42%69%21%50%
14:00 · Serie AComo 1907 crestComo 1907US Sassuolo Calcio crestSassuoloO1.582%61%21%18%60%82%38%53%