Como 1907 vs US Sassuolo Calcio prediction

Serie A · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK

Como 1907 vs US Sassuolo Calcio prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK): Como 1907 61% · Draw 21% · US Sassuolo Calcio 18%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%. Most likely score: 2-1. Expected goals 2.09–1.03. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Como 1907 vs Sassuolo preview

Como 1907 (5th, 14 pts) host Sassuolo (13th, 8 pts) in the Serie A. Como 1907 have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (WWLDL) and Sassuolo 5 points from 5 (LDLWD). Sassuolo: both teams scored in each of their last 7 league games.

Our model makes Como 1907 clear favourites at 61%, with Sassuolo at 18%. Expected goals are 2.09 for Como 1907 and 1.03 for Sassuolo, and the most likely score is 2-1 (10%).

The goal markets sit close to the Serie A norm: Over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 53%.

Como 1907 to win is the model's clearest call at 61%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Como 1907 vs US Sassuolo Calcio?

Como 1907 are clear favourites at 61%, with US Sassuolo Calcio at 18%. Recent form: Como 1907 WWLDLW, US Sassuolo Calcio LDLWDW (latest first).

Sassuolo lost 3 of 4 away games this season.

Como 1907

61%

Draw

21%

US Sassuolo Calcio

18%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 60% and Under 2.5 is 40%.

Over 2.5 in all 4 Sassuolo away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	82%	18%	1.22
2.5 goals	60%	40%	1.66
3.5 goals	38%	62%	2.63

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: Como 1907 score in about 88% of simulated outcomes and US Sassuolo Calcio in about 65%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 7 Sassuolo games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	53%	1.87
No	47%	2.15

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Como 1907 win	61%	1.63
Draw	21%	4.74
US Sassuolo Calcio win	18%	5.71
Over 2.5	60%	1.66
Under 2.5	40%	2.53

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Como 1907 goals (rows) × US Sassuolo Calcio goals (columns)
Como \ US	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
1	9%	10%	5%	2%	0%	0%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	0%	0%
3	7%	7%	4%	1%	0%	0%
4	4%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

2-1

10%

1-1

10%

2-0

10%

1-0

3-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Como 1907 and Sassuolo played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Como 1907, last 5

Como 1907, last 5 at home

Sassuolo, last 5

Sassuolo, last 5 away

Current streaks

Sassuolo: both teams scored in each of their last 7 league games.
Sassuolo: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
Sassuolo have not won in their last 3 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Como 1907 and Sassuolo.

How Como 1907 and Sassuolo compare this season

Stat	Como 1907 (home, 2)	Sassuolo (away, 4)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	50% (1/2)	100% (4/4)	84%
Over 2.5	50% (1/2)	100% (4/4)	60%
Over 3.5	0% (0/2)	50% (2/4)	30%
BTTS	50% (1/2)	100% (4/4)	57%
Win %	50% (1/2)	0% (0/4)	47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	1.00	1.50	1.48
Goals against per game	0.50	2.50	1.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Como 1907	5	14	7
Sassuolo	13	8	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Como 1907 1 win, 0 draws, Sassuolo 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 2; both teams scored in 1 of 2.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Fri, 17 Apr 2026	Serie A	Sassuolo v Como 1907	2–1
Fri, 28 Nov 2025	Serie A	Como 1907 v Sassuolo	2–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Como 1907 v Sassuolo?: Our model makes Como 1907 the more likely winner at 61%: Como 1907 61%, draw 21%, Sassuolo 18%. Sassuolo lost 3 of 4 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Como 1907 v Sassuolo?: Over 2.5 goals is 60% and under 2.5 is 40%, with expected goals of 3.1. Over 2.5 in all 4 Sassuolo away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 2-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Como 1907 and Sassuolo played recently?: Latest first: Como 1907 WWLDL, Sassuolo LDLWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

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