Frosinone Calcio vs US Sassuolo Calcio prediction

Serie A · Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Full-time: Frosinone Calcio 4–2 US Sassuolo Calcio (Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Frosinone Calcio a 43% chance of winning, and the exact score 4–2 a 1% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (43%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (54%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (12%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (74%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (78%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (54%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (68%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Frosinone Calcio vs US Sassuolo Calcio prediction (Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Frosinone Calcio 43% · Draw 26% · US Sassuolo Calcio 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.55–1.31. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Frosinone vs Sassuolo pre-match preview

Frosinone (6th, 13 pts) host Sassuolo (13th, 8 pts) in the Serie A. Frosinone have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (LWDWW) and Sassuolo 8 points from 5 (DLWDW). Sassuolo: both teams scored in each of their last 7 league games.

Our model favours Frosinone at 43% to Sassuolo's 32%. Expected goals are 1.55 for Frosinone and 1.31 for Sassuolo, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the Serie A norm: Over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 54%. In their last 4 meetings, Frosinone won 2 and Sassuolo won 2; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Frosinone Calcio vs US Sassuolo Calcio?

Frosinone Calcio are favoured at 43%, but the draw and a US Sassuolo Calcio win together still account for 57%. Recent form: Frosinone Calcio LWDWWL, US Sassuolo Calcio DLWDWL (latest first).

Frosinone won 3 of 4 home games this season.

Frosinone Calcio

43%

Draw

26%

US Sassuolo Calcio

32%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 54% and Under 2.5 is 46%.

Over 2.5 in all 4 Sassuolo away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	78%	22%	1.28
2.5 goals	54%	46%	1.84
3.5 goals	32%	68%	3.12

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: Frosinone Calcio score in about 79% of simulated outcomes and US Sassuolo Calcio in about 73%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 7 Sassuolo games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	54%	1.86
No	46%	2.17

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Frosinone Calcio win	43%	2.35
Draw	26%	3.90
US Sassuolo Calcio win	32%	3.15
Over 2.5	54%	1.84
Under 2.5	46%	2.19

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Frosinone Calcio goals (rows) × US Sassuolo Calcio goals (columns)
Frosinone \ US	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	0%
1	9%	12%	8%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	0%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

2-1

1-0

1-2

0-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Frosinone and Sassuolo played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Frosinone, last 5

Frosinone, last 5 at home

Sassuolo, last 5

Sassuolo, last 5 away

Current streaks

Sassuolo: both teams scored in each of their last 7 league games.
Sassuolo: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
Frosinone: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.
Sassuolo have not won in their last 3 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Frosinone and Sassuolo.

How Frosinone and Sassuolo compare this season

Stat	Frosinone (home, 4)	Sassuolo (away, 4)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	100% (4/4)	84%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	100% (4/4)	60%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	30%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	100% (4/4)	57%
Win %	75% (3/4)	0% (0/4)	47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	2.25	1.50	1.48
Goals against per game	1.25	2.50	1.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Frosinone	6	13	7
Sassuolo	13	8	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Frosinone 2 wins, 0 draws, Sassuolo 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Tue, 13 May 2025	I2	Sassuolo v Frosinone	0–1
Sat, 14 Dec 2024	I2	Frosinone v Sassuolo	1–2
Sat, 9 Mar 2024	Serie A	Sassuolo v Frosinone	1–0
Sun, 17 Sept 2023	Serie A	Frosinone v Sassuolo	4–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Frosinone v Sassuolo?: Our model makes Frosinone the more likely winner at 43%: Frosinone 43%, draw 26%, Sassuolo 32%. Frosinone won 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Frosinone v Sassuolo?: Over 2.5 goals is 54% and under 2.5 is 46%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in all 4 Sassuolo away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Frosinone and Sassuolo played recently?: Latest first: Frosinone LWDWW, Sassuolo DLWDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:00 · Serie ASerie ACagliarivBologna	U3.579%	32%	29%	39%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AComo 1907vSassuolo	O1.582%	61%	21%	18%	82%	60%	38%	53%	60%	82%	38%	53%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ANapolivRoma	U3.579%	36%	29%	35%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
19:45 · Serie ASerie ALaziovParma	U3.581%	58%	26%	16%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	16%	11%	86%	68%	46%	53%	68%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%

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