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Le Mans FC crest Le Mans FC vs Toulouse FC Toulouse FC crest prediction

Ligue 1 · Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Full-time: Le Mans FC 0–3 Toulouse FC (Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Toulouse FC a 35% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–3 a 3% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 3.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Le Mans FC vs Toulouse FC prediction (Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Le Mans FC 38% · Draw 27% · Toulouse FC 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.37–1.29. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 56%, No 44%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 0-1 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Le Mans vs Toulouse pre-match preview

Le Mans (16th, 6 pts) host Toulouse (11th, 9 pts) in the Ligue 1. Le Mans have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (LWDDL) and Toulouse 6 points from 5 (DWDLD). Le Mans: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Le Mans 38%, Toulouse 35%. Expected goals are 1.37 for Le Mans and 1.29 for Toulouse, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 50%, while 63% of Ligue 1 matches go over 2.5.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 56%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Le Mans FC vs Toulouse FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Le Mans FC 38%, Toulouse FC 35%, with the draw at 27%. Recent form: Le Mans FC LWDDLD, Toulouse FC DWDLDL (latest first).

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Le Mans FC38%
Draw27%
Toulouse FC35%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 50% and Under 2.5 is 50%.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals75%25%1.33
2.5 goals50%50%2.01
3.5 goals28%72%3.59

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance: Le Mans FC score in about 75% of simulated outcomes and Toulouse FC in about 73%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 6 of 7 Le Mans games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes56%1.79
No44%2.26

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Le Mans FC win38%2.60
Draw27%3.73
Toulouse FC win35%2.88
Over 2.550%2.01
Under 2.550%1.99

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Le Mans FC goals (rows) × Toulouse FC goals (columns)
Le \ Toulouse012345
07%9%6%3%1%0%
19%13%8%3%1%0%
27%8%5%2%1%0%
33%4%3%1%0%0%
41%1%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-113%
1-09%
0-19%
2-18%
1-28%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Le Mans and Toulouse played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Le Mans, last 5
  1. L 1–3 at PSG
  2. W 2–1 v Lorient
  3. D 2–2 v Lens
  4. D 1–1 at Nice
  5. L 2–3 at Stade Rennais
Le Mans, last 5 at home
  1. W 2–1 v Lorient
  2. D 2–2 v Lens
  3. D 2–2 v Brest
Toulouse, last 5
  1. D 2–2 at Monaco
  2. W 3–2 v Le Havre
  3. D 2–2 at Lorient
  4. L 0–1 v Lille
  5. D 2–2 at Brest
Toulouse, last 5 away
  1. D 2–2 at Monaco
  2. D 2–2 at Lorient
  3. D 2–2 at Brest
  4. W 2–1 at Strasbourg
  5. L 2–3 at Lens

Current streaks

Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. Le Mans and Toulouse.

How Le Mans and Toulouse compare this season

StatLe Mans (home, 4)Toulouse (away, 4)Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5100% (4/4)100% (4/4)79%
Over 2.5100% (4/4)100% (4/4)63%
Over 3.550% (2/4)75% (3/4)38%
BTTS75% (3/4)75% (3/4)63%
Win %25% (1/4)25% (1/4)44% home · 32% away
Goals for per game1.502.251.52
Goals against per game2.001.501.52

Ligue 1 average from 63 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

TeamPosPtsP
Le Mans1667
Toulouse1197

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Le Mans v Toulouse?
Our model makes Le Mans the more likely winner at 38%: Le Mans 38%, draw 27%, Toulouse 35%. Model expects 2.7 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Le Mans v Toulouse?
Over 2.5 goals is 50% and under 2.5 is 50%, with expected goals of 2.7. Model expects 2.7 total goals.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Le Mans and Toulouse played recently?
Latest first: Le Mans LWDDL, Toulouse DWDLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
19:45 · Ligue 1Racing Club de Lens crestLensParis FC crestParisO1.576%54%24%21%51%76%29%55%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:00 · Ligue 1AS Monaco FC crestMonacoLille OSC crestLilleO1.577%44%26%30%53%77%30%56%
16:15 · Ligue 1Olympique de Marseille crestMarseilleLe Havre AC crestLe HavreO1.579%66%20%14%56%79%34%54%
16:15 · Ligue 1AJ Auxerre crestAuxerreLe Mans FC crestLe MansO1.575%45%27%29%49%75%28%55%
16:15 · Ligue 1Toulouse FC crestToulouseES Troyes AC crestTroyesO1.578%58%23%19%54%78%31%55%
16:15 · Ligue 1Stade Rennais FC 1901 crestStade RennaisRC Strasbourg Alsace crestStrasbourgO1.587%48%22%29%68%87%47%61%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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Fri, 16 Oct 2026
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