Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln prediction

Bundesliga · Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 19:30 UK

Full-time: Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 1. FC Köln (Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 19:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Eintracht Frankfurt a 52% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–0 a 5% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (52%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (64%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 2-1 (9%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (79%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (88%)Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (70%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (51%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln prediction (Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 19:30 UK): Eintracht Frankfurt 52% · Draw 21% · 1. FC Köln 26%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%. Most likely score: 2-1. Expected goals 2.13–1.48. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 64%, No 36%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Frankfurt vs Köln pre-match preview

Frankfurt (11th, 8 pts) host Köln (12th, 7 pts) in the Bundesliga. Frankfurt have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (LDWLD) and Köln 7 points from 5 (WLDLW).

Our model favours Frankfurt at 52% to Köln's 26%. Expected goals are 2.13 for Frankfurt and 1.48 for Köln, and the most likely score is 2-1 (9%).

The goal markets sit close to the Bundesliga norm: Over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 64%. In their last 4 meetings, Frankfurt won 1, Köln won 1 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 70%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln?

Eintracht Frankfurt are favoured at 52%, but the draw and a 1. FC Köln win together still account for 48%. Recent form: Eintracht Frankfurt LDWLDD, 1. FC Köln WLDLWL (latest first).

Köln lost all 3 away games this season.

Eintracht Frankfurt

52%

Draw

21%

1. FC Köln

26%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 70%.

Over 2.5 in 5 of 6 Frankfurt games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	88%	12%	1.14
2.5 goals	70%	30%	1.43
3.5 goals	49%	51%	2.05

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 64% chance: Eintracht Frankfurt score in about 88% of simulated outcomes and 1. FC Köln in about 78%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 5 of 6 Köln games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	64%	1.56
No	36%	2.78

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Eintracht Frankfurt win	52%	1.92
Draw	21%	4.67
1. FC Köln win	26%	3.80
Over 2.5	70%	1.43
Under 2.5	30%	3.32

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt goals (rows) × 1. FC Köln goals (columns)
Eintracht \ 1.	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3%	4%	3%	1%	1%	0%
1	5%	9%	6%	3%	1%	0%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	0%
3	4%	6%	5%	2%	1%	0%
4	2%	3%	3%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%
Other	3% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

2-1

1-1

2-2

3-1

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Frankfurt and Köln played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Frankfurt, last 5

Frankfurt, last 5 at home

Köln, last 5

Köln, last 5 away

How Frankfurt and Köln compare this season

Stat	Frankfurt (home, 3)	Köln (away, 3)	Bundesliga average
Over 1.5	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	81%
Over 2.5	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	74%
Over 3.5	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	56%
BTTS	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	59%
Win %	33% (1/3)	0% (0/3)	52% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	1.33	0.67	1.84
Goals against per game	2.00	2.33	1.84

Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Frankfurt	11	8	6
Köln	12	7	6

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Frankfurt 1 win, 2 draws, Köln 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 5 Apr 2026	Bundesliga	Frankfurt v Köln	2–2
Sat, 22 Nov 2025	Bundesliga	Köln v Frankfurt	3–4
Sat, 3 Feb 2024	Bundesliga	Köln v Frankfurt	2–0
Sun, 3 Sept 2023	Bundesliga	Frankfurt v Köln	1–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Frankfurt v Köln?: Our model makes Frankfurt the more likely winner at 52%: Frankfurt 52%, draw 21%, Köln 26%. Köln lost all 3 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Frankfurt v Köln?: Over 2.5 goals is 70% and under 2.5 is 30%, with expected goals of 3.6. Over 2.5 in 5 of 6 Frankfurt games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 2-1 at 9%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Frankfurt and Köln played recently?: Latest first: Frankfurt LDWLD, Köln WLDLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaAugsburgvUnion Berlin	O1.577%	50%	25%	25%	77%	52%	30%	59%	52%	77%	30%	59%
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