Bundesliga · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK
Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK): Borussia Dortmund 67% · Draw 18% · Eintracht Frankfurt 15%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%. Most likely score: 2-1. Expected goals 2.53–1.16. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 62%, No 38%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Dortmund vs Frankfurt preview
Dortmund (2nd, 14 pts) host Frankfurt (11th, 8 pts) in the Bundesliga. Dortmund have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (WDLDW) and Frankfurt 7 points from 5 (WLDWL). Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
Our model makes Dortmund clear favourites at 67%, with Frankfurt at 15%. Expected goals are 2.53 for Dortmund and 1.16 for Frankfurt, and the most likely score is 2-1 (9%).
The goal markets sit close to the Bundesliga norm: Over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 62%. In their last 5 meetings, Dortmund won 3, Frankfurt won 1 and 1 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 71%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.
Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites at 67%, with Eintracht Frankfurt at 15%. Recent form: Borussia Dortmund WDLDWW, Eintracht Frankfurt WLDWLD (latest first).
Dortmund won 2 of 3 home games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals is likely at 71%.
Over 2.5 in all 3 Frankfurt away games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 89% | 11% | 1.13 |
| 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | 1.40 |
| 3.5 goals | 51% | 49% | 1.98 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 62% chance: Borussia Dortmund score in about 92% of simulated outcomes and Eintracht Frankfurt in about 70%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 4 of 6 Frankfurt games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.63 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 67% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.61 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 15% | 6.51 |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.50 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.7 total goals.
| Borussia \ Eintracht | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 6% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 4 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 5% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Dortmund and Frankfurt played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Dortmund and Frankfurt.
How Dortmund and Frankfurt compare this season
| Stat | Dortmund (home, 3) | Frankfurt (away, 3) | Bundesliga average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 100% (3/3) | 100% (3/3) | 81% |
| Over 2.5 | 67% (2/3) | 100% (3/3) | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% (1/3) | 100% (3/3) | 56% |
| BTTS | 33% (1/3) | 67% (2/3) | 59% |
| Win % | 67% (2/3) | 33% (1/3) | 52% home · 28% away |
| Goals for per game | 2.33 | 2.00 | 1.84 |
| Goals against per game | 0.67 | 3.33 | 1.84 |
Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Bundesliga table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund | 2 | 14 | 6 |
| Frankfurt | 11 | 8 | 6 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Dortmund 3 wins, 1 draw, Frankfurt 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 8 May 2026 | Bundesliga | Dortmund v Frankfurt | 3–2 |
| Fri, 9 Jan 2026 | Bundesliga | Frankfurt v Dortmund | 3–3 |
| Fri, 17 Jan 2025 | Bundesliga | Frankfurt v Dortmund | 2–0 |
| Sat, 24 Aug 2024 | Bundesliga | Dortmund v Frankfurt | 2–0 |
| Sun, 17 Mar 2024 | Bundesliga | Dortmund v Frankfurt | 3–1 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Dortmund v Frankfurt?
- Our model makes Dortmund the more likely winner at 67%: Dortmund 67%, draw 18%, Frankfurt 15%. Dortmund won 2 of 3 home games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Dortmund v Frankfurt?
- Over 2.5 goals is 71% and under 2.5 is 29%, with expected goals of 3.7. Over 2.5 in all 3 Frankfurt away games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 2-1 at 9%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Dortmund and Frankfurt played recently?
- Latest first: Dortmund WDLDW, Frankfurt WLDWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Borussia Dortmund
- Eintracht Frankfurt
- Bundesliga predictions
- Bundesliga table
- Bundesliga Home win
- Bundesliga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Bundesliga predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.577% | 50% | 25% | 25% | 52% | 77% | 30% | 59% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | U3.574% | 45% | 27% | 28% | 48% | 74% | 26% | 58% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.579% | 52% | 24% | 24% | 56% | 79% | 33% | 59% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.586% | 60% | 20% | 20% | 67% | 86% | 46% | 62% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.581% | 41% | 25% | 34% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 61% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.588% | 28% | 22% | 50% | 70% | 88% | 48% | 64% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.577% | 60% | 23% | 17% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 50% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.578% | 34% | 29% | 37% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 51% |
12:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.581% | 27% | 25% | 48% | 57% | 81% | 35% | 59% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.577% | 32% | 28% | 40% | 45% | 71% | 23% | 52% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.576% | 50% | 25% | 25% | 51% | 76% | 29% | 53% |