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1. FSV Mainz 05 crest 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Werder Bremen SV Werder Bremen crest prediction

Bundesliga · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Werder Bremen prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK): 1. FSV Mainz 05 52% · Draw 24% · SV Werder Bremen 24%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.77–1.14. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 59%, No 41%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Mainz vs Werder Bremen preview

Mainz (5th, 10 pts) host Werder Bremen (8th, 9 pts) in the Bundesliga. Mainz have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (WLWLW) and Werder Bremen 9 points from 5 (DDWDW). Werder Bremen: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.

Our model favours Mainz at 52% to Werder Bremen's 24%. Expected goals are 1.77 for Mainz and 1.14 for Werder Bremen, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Over 2.5 goals is 56%, below the Bundesliga rate of 74%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Bundesliga match. In their last 5 meetings, Mainz won 1, Werder Bremen won 3 and 1 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Werder Bremen?

1. FSV Mainz 05 are favoured at 52%, but the draw and a SV Werder Bremen win together still account for 48%. Recent form: 1. FSV Mainz 05 WLWLWD, SV Werder Bremen DDWDWL (latest first).

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

1. FSV Mainz 0552%
Draw24%
SV Werder Bremen24%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 56% and Under 2.5 is 44%.

Over 2.5 in 5 of 6 Werder Bremen games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals79%21%1.26
2.5 goals56%44%1.80
3.5 goals33%67%3.00

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance: 1. FSV Mainz 05 score in about 83% of simulated outcomes and SV Werder Bremen in about 68%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 6 Werder Bremen games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes59%1.68
No41%2.47

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
1. FSV Mainz 05 win52%1.94
Draw24%4.14
SV Werder Bremen win24%4.14
Over 2.556%1.80
Under 2.544%2.26

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: 1. FSV Mainz 05 goals (rows) × SV Werder Bremen goals (columns)
1. \ SV012345
06%6%4%1%0%0%
19%11%6%2%1%0%
29%10%6%2%1%0%
35%6%3%1%0%0%
42%3%1%1%0%0%
51%1%1%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-111%
2-110%
1-09%
2-09%
1-26%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Mainz and Werder Bremen played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Mainz, last 5
  1. W 1–0 at Schalke
  2. L 3–4 v Leverkusen
  3. W 4–3 at Gladbach
  4. L 1–3 v Frankfurt
  5. W 5–0 at HSV
Mainz, last 5 at home
  1. L 3–4 v Leverkusen
  2. L 1–3 v Frankfurt
  3. D 0–0 v Paderborn
  4. L 1–3 v Union Berlin
  5. L 3–4 v Bayern
Werder Bremen, last 5
  1. D 2–2 v Paderborn
  2. D 2–2 at Dortmund
  3. W 3–2 v Augsburg
  4. D 1–1 at Köln
  5. W 3–1 v Leipzig
Werder Bremen, last 5 away
  1. D 2–2 at Dortmund
  2. D 1–1 at Köln
  3. L 1–4 at Freiburg
  4. L 0–1 at Hoffenheim
  5. D 1–1 at Stuttgart

Current streaks

Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Mainz and Werder Bremen.

How Mainz and Werder Bremen compare this season

StatMainz (home, 3)Werder Bremen (away, 3)Bundesliga average
Over 1.567% (2/3)100% (3/3)81%
Over 2.567% (2/3)67% (2/3)74%
Over 3.567% (2/3)67% (2/3)56%
BTTS67% (2/3)100% (3/3)59%
Win %0% (0/3)0% (0/3)52% home · 28% away
Goals for per game1.331.331.84
Goals against per game2.332.331.84

Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

TeamPosPtsP
Mainz5106
Werder Bremen896

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Mainz 1 win, 1 draw, Werder Bremen 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 15 Mar 2026BundesligaWerder Bremen v Mainz0–2
Sat, 1 Nov 2025BundesligaMainz v Werder Bremen1–1
Fri, 31 Jan 2025BundesligaWerder Bremen v Mainz1–0
Sun, 15 Sept 2024BundesligaMainz v Werder Bremen1–2
Sat, 3 Feb 2024BundesligaMainz v Werder Bremen0–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Mainz v Werder Bremen?
Our model makes Mainz the more likely winner at 52%: Mainz 52%, draw 24%, Werder Bremen 24%. Model expects 2.9 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mainz v Werder Bremen?
Over 2.5 goals is 56% and under 2.5 is 44%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in 5 of 6 Werder Bremen games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Mainz and Werder Bremen played recently?
Latest first: Mainz WLWLW, Werder Bremen DDWDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Bundesliga predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:30 · BundesligaFC Augsburg crestAugsburg1. FC Union Berlin crestUnion BerlinO1.577%50%25%25%52%77%30%59%
14:30 · Bundesliga1. FC Köln crestKölnFC Schalke 04 crestSchalkeU3.574%45%27%28%48%74%26%58%
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17:30 · BundesligaBorussia Dortmund crestDortmundEintracht Frankfurt crestFrankfurtO1.589%67%18%15%71%89%51%62%
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14:30 · BundesligaTSG 1899 Hoffenheim crestHoffenheimBayer 04 Leverkusen crestLeverkusenO1.588%28%22%50%70%88%48%64%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoCruzeiro EC crestCruzeiroClube do Remo crestClube do RemoO1.577%60%23%17%53%77%30%50%
12:30 · EFL ChampPortsmouth FC crestPortsmouthMillwall FC crestMillwallU3.578%34%29%37%43%70%22%51%
12:30 · Premier LgAston Villa FC crestAston VillaManchester City FC crestMan CityO1.581%27%25%48%57%81%35%59%
12:30 · EFL ChampCharlton Athletic FC crestCharltonNorwich City FC crestNorwichU3.577%32%28%40%45%71%23%52%
12:30 · EFL ChampSheffield United FC crestSheffield UtdDerby County FC crestDerby CountyO1.576%50%25%25%51%76%29%53%