ProbaPredict

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim crest TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Bayer 04 Leverkusen crest prediction

Bundesliga · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK): TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 28% · Draw 22% · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.53–2.07. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 64%, No 36%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen preview

Hoffenheim (14th, 6 pts) host Leverkusen (4th, 13 pts) in the Bundesliga. Hoffenheim have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (WLLWL) and Leverkusen 13 points from 5 (WWWDW), so Leverkusen arrive in clearly better form. Leverkusen: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 11 league games.

Our model favours Leverkusen at 50% to Hoffenheim's 28%. Expected goals are 1.53 for Hoffenheim and 2.07 for Leverkusen, and the most likely score is 1-1 (9%).

The goal markets sit close to the Bundesliga norm: Over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 64%. In their last 5 meetings, Hoffenheim won 2 and Leverkusen won 3; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 70%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?

Bayer 04 Leverkusen are favoured at 50%, but the draw and a TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win together still account for 50%. Recent form: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim WLLWLL, Bayer 04 Leverkusen WWWDWL (latest first).

Hoffenheim lost 2 of 3 home games this season.

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim28%
Draw22%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen50%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 70%.

Over 2.5 in all 6 Hoffenheim games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals88%12%1.14
2.5 goals70%30%1.44
3.5 goals48%52%2.07

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 64% chance: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim score in about 79% of simulated outcomes and Bayer 04 Leverkusen in about 87%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 6 Hoffenheim games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes64%1.56
No36%2.79

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win28%3.53
Draw22%4.58
Bayer 04 Leverkusen win50%2.01
Over 2.570%1.44
Under 2.530%3.29

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

Share:XWhatsAppTelegramFacebook

What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim goals (rows) × Bayer 04 Leverkusen goals (columns)
TSG \ Bayer012345
03%5%6%4%2%1%
14%9%9%6%3%1%
23%7%7%5%2%1%
32%3%3%2%1%1%
41%1%1%1%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-19%
1-29%
2-27%
2-17%
1-36%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Hoffenheim and Leverkusen played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Hoffenheim, last 5
  1. W 2–1 at Gladbach
  2. L 2–3 v HSV
  3. L 1–3 at Paderborn
  4. W 2–1 v Stuttgart
  5. L 2–3 v Dortmund
Hoffenheim, last 5 at home
  1. L 2–3 v HSV
  2. W 2–1 v Stuttgart
  3. L 2–3 v Dortmund
  4. W 1–0 v Werder Bremen
  5. D 3–3 v Stuttgart
Leverkusen, last 5
  1. W 2–1 v Freiburg
  2. W 4–3 at Mainz
  3. W 2–0 v Leipzig
  4. D 2–2 at Augsburg
  5. W 4–0 v Union Berlin
Leverkusen, last 5 away
  1. W 4–3 at Mainz
  2. D 2–2 at Augsburg
  3. L 2–3 at Elversberg
  4. L 1–3 at Stuttgart
  5. W 2–1 at Köln

Current streaks

Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Hoffenheim and Leverkusen.

How Hoffenheim and Leverkusen compare this season

StatHoffenheim (home, 3)Leverkusen (away, 3)Bundesliga average
Over 1.5100% (3/3)100% (3/3)81%
Over 2.5100% (3/3)100% (3/3)74%
Over 3.567% (2/3)100% (3/3)56%
BTTS100% (3/3)100% (3/3)59%
Win %33% (1/3)33% (1/3)52% home · 28% away
Goals for per game2.002.671.84
Goals against per game2.332.671.84

Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

TeamPosPtsP
Hoffenheim1466
Leverkusen4136

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Hoffenheim 2 wins, 0 draws, Leverkusen 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 4 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sat, 17 Jan 2026BundesligaHoffenheim v Leverkusen1–0
Sat, 23 Aug 2025BundesligaLeverkusen v Hoffenheim1–2
Sun, 2 Feb 2025BundesligaLeverkusen v Hoffenheim3–1
Sat, 14 Sept 2024BundesligaHoffenheim v Leverkusen1–4
Sat, 30 Mar 2024BundesligaLeverkusen v Hoffenheim2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Hoffenheim v Leverkusen?
Our model makes Leverkusen the more likely winner at 50%: Hoffenheim 28%, draw 22%, Leverkusen 50%. Hoffenheim lost 2 of 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Hoffenheim v Leverkusen?
Over 2.5 goals is 70% and under 2.5 is 30%, with expected goals of 3.6. Over 2.5 in all 6 Hoffenheim games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 9%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Hoffenheim and Leverkusen played recently?
Latest first: Hoffenheim WLLWL, Leverkusen WWWDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Bundesliga predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:30 · BundesligaFC Augsburg crestAugsburg1. FC Union Berlin crestUnion BerlinO1.577%50%25%25%52%77%30%59%
14:30 · Bundesliga1. FC Köln crestKölnFC Schalke 04 crestSchalkeU3.574%45%27%28%48%74%26%58%
14:30 · Bundesliga1. FSV Mainz 05 crestMainzSV Werder Bremen crestWerder BremenO1.579%52%24%24%56%79%33%59%
14:30 · BundesligaRB Leipzig crestLeipzigSV 07 Elversberg crestElversbergO1.586%60%20%20%67%86%46%62%
14:30 · BundesligaSC Paderborn 07 crestPaderbornHamburger SV crestHSVO1.581%41%25%34%59%81%36%61%
17:30 · BundesligaBorussia Dortmund crestDortmundEintracht Frankfurt crestFrankfurtO1.589%67%18%15%71%89%51%62%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
01:00 · BrasileirãoSantos FC crestSantosEC Bahia crestBahiaO1.578%42%26%32%54%78%32%53%
11:15 · EredivisieFortuna Sittard crestSittardSBV Excelsior crestExcelsiorO1.581%44%25%31%59%81%37%59%
11:30 · Serie AFC Internazionale Milano crestInterACF Fiorentina crestFiorentinaO1.586%72%16%11%68%86%46%53%
13:00 · La LigaAthletic Club crestAthleticGetafe CF crestGetafeU3.590%45%33%22%26%53%10%46%
13:30 · EredivisieNEC crestNECFC Groningen crestGroningenO1.585%52%22%25%65%85%43%60%