Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim prediction

Bundesliga · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UK

Full-time: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave TSG 1899 Hoffenheim a 38% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–2 a 8% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 3.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (39%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (64%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (10%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (77%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (86%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (67%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (55%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UK): Borussia Mönchengladbach 39% · Draw 23% · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.73–1.72. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 64%, No 36%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Gladbach vs Hoffenheim pre-match preview

Gladbach (18th, 0 pts) host Hoffenheim (14th, 6 pts) in the Bundesliga. Gladbach have taken 0 points from their last 5 games (LLLLL) and Hoffenheim 3 points from 5 (LLWLL). Gladbach: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Gladbach 39%, Hoffenheim 38%. Expected goals are 1.73 for Gladbach and 1.72 for Hoffenheim, and the most likely score is 1-1 (10%).

The goal markets sit close to the Bundesliga norm: Over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 64%. In their last 4 meetings, Gladbach won 2, Hoffenheim won 1 and 1 ended level; all had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 67%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?

This is close to a coin flip: Borussia Mönchengladbach 39%, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 38%, with the draw at 23%. Recent form: Borussia Mönchengladbach LLLLLW, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim LLWLLL (latest first).

Hoffenheim lost 2 of 3 away games this season.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

39%

Draw

23%

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

38%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 67%.

Over 2.5 in all 6 Gladbach games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	86%	14%	1.16
2.5 goals	67%	33%	1.49
3.5 goals	45%	55%	2.21

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 64% chance: Borussia Mönchengladbach score in about 82% of simulated outcomes and TSG 1899 Hoffenheim in about 82%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 6 Hoffenheim games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	64%	1.57
No	36%	2.76

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Borussia Mönchengladbach win	39%	2.58
Draw	23%	4.32
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win	38%	2.62
Over 2.5	67%	1.49
Under 2.5	33%	3.02

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach goals (rows) × TSG 1899 Hoffenheim goals (columns)
Borussia \ TSG	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4%	5%	5%	3%	1%	0%
1	5%	10%	8%	5%	2%	1%
2	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	0%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

10%

2-1

1-2

2-2

1-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Gladbach and Hoffenheim played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Gladbach, last 5

Gladbach, last 5 at home

Hoffenheim, last 5

Hoffenheim, last 5 away

Current streaks

Gladbach: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
Gladbach: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
Hoffenheim: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
Hoffenheim: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
Hoffenheim: both teams scored in each of their last 6 league games.
Gladbach have lost each of their last 6 league games.
Gladbach have not won in their last 6 league games.
Gladbach: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.

Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Gladbach and Hoffenheim.

How Gladbach and Hoffenheim compare this season

Stat	Gladbach (home, 3)	Hoffenheim (away, 3)	Bundesliga average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	100% (3/3)	81%
Over 2.5	100% (3/3)	100% (3/3)	74%
Over 3.5	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	56%
BTTS	100% (3/3)	100% (3/3)	59%
Win %	0% (0/3)	33% (1/3)	52% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	2.33	1.67	1.84
Goals against per game	3.33	2.33	1.84

Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Gladbach	18	0	6
Hoffenheim	14	6	6

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Gladbach 2 wins, 1 draw, Hoffenheim 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 16 May 2026	Bundesliga	Gladbach v Hoffenheim	4–0
Wed, 14 Jan 2026	Bundesliga	Hoffenheim v Gladbach	5–1
Sat, 3 May 2025	Bundesliga	Gladbach v Hoffenheim	4–4
Sat, 21 Dec 2024	Bundesliga	Hoffenheim v Gladbach	1–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Gladbach v Hoffenheim?: Our model makes Gladbach the more likely winner at 39%: Gladbach 39%, draw 23%, Hoffenheim 38%. Hoffenheim lost 2 of 3 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Gladbach v Hoffenheim?: Over 2.5 goals is 67% and under 2.5 is 33%, with expected goals of 3.4. Over 2.5 in all 6 Gladbach games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Gladbach and Hoffenheim played recently?: Latest first: Gladbach LLLLL, Hoffenheim LLWLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

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